Back City to beat Saints 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 at juicy odds

The betting shape of the English Premier League game between Manchester City and Southampton at Etihad Stadium is perfect for a combination correct-score punt at attractive odds.

The Blues is around 1-5 to kick off their English Premier League championship defence with three points from the visit of the Saints, who are back in the top flight after seven seasons kicking around the second and third divisions.

Manchester City won 18 of their 19 English Premier League home matches last term, with only Sunderland leaving the 2002 Commonwealth Games stadium with anything to show for their efforts in what was one of the shocks of the season.

The Blues were really, really impressive for large parts of last weekend`s FA Community Shield, tearing apart UEFA Champions League winner Chelsea in the first half hour of the second period and putting the glorified friendly at Villa Park to bed with three goals in a dozen minutes.

Meanwhile, Southampton were losing its final warm-up game 0-4 to Udinese at St Mary`s and, while the Bianconeri were the third best team in Italy`s Serie A last term, the size of the defeat must concern fans of the south coast club.

There is nothing wrong with backing odds-on shots provided that the price is bigger than it should be. Odds of 1-5 equate to a probability of 83 per cent. If Manchester City played Southampton at Etihad Stadium 100 times, surely the Blues would beat the Saints more than 83 times. One could argue that Roberto Mancini`s side should be about 1-10.

English Premier League punters who place four-, five- or six-figure wagers will steam into Manchester City at 1-5. But what should the man in the street do? Well, the answer is to back the Blues to win by some correct-score margins.

Believe it or not, you can back Manchester City to beat Southampton without conceding a goal and scoring no more than six of their own at a shade of odds on. With 1-0 City at around 15-2, 2-0 City at around 6-1, 3-0 City at around 7-1, 4-0 City at around 11-1, 5-0 City at around 20-1 and 6-0 City at around 40-1, the bet works out at around 5-6.

However, is there justification to include six scorelines? After all, Manchester City`s preparations for the match have been hampered by not only midweek international friendlies all over the world but also injuries to three England stars - Gareth Barry, Joe Hart and Micah Richards. Plus there is the possibility that the home side will put its cue in the rack, so to speak, if it races into a commanding lead.

Combine that with the high probability that Southampton will not get too adventurous on its English Premier League return and it makes sense to bet on fewer options and go for a much bigger dividend. Seldom did Manchester City score fewer than two goals in home games last season so 2-0 City seems like the starting point. Chuck in 3-0 City and 4-0 City as well, with the pared-down correct-score bet paying around 15-8.

Correct-score betting is the way to tackle matches such as Manchester City versus Southampton where the home team is long odds on and should win without conceding a goal.

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19/08/2012     © Frixo 2024