Back Froome to continue British cycling`s golden run

The third and final of this year`s Grand Tours gets under way on Saturday 18 August 2012 and the Vuelta a Espana promises to be the most interesting race of the lot.

Bookmakers are billing it as Alberto Contador versus Chris Froome, with the Spaniard trading at around 8-13 and the Briton at around 100-30. It is 10-1 bar the top two, with their combined odds equating to odds between 2-11 and 1-6.

One can understand why bookmakers have installed Contador, one of only five riders to have won all three Grand Tours, as the favourite. After all, his record of winning - on the road at least - all bar one of the Grand Tours that he has entered demands the utmost respect in betting terms.

But what kind of physical condition will Contador be in as he makes his big-time return from suspension having been banned for testing positive for clenbuterol in a control taken during the 2010 Tour de France that he took out, on the road, despite not winning any of its 21 stages?

Contador took part in the Tour of Benelux earlier this month and acquitted himself pretty well in the seven-stage race, finishing joint fourth, 55 seconds behind Lars Boom, and showing decent attacking form on the final two days.

There is little doubt that Contador merits Vuelta a Espana favouritism but odds of 8-13 equates to a winning chance of 62 per cent. Froome`s odds of 100-30, on the other hand, equate to a winning chance of 23%. Surely there is less to choose the big two than the ante-post betting market says.

Froome was brilliant throughout this year`s Tour de France, demonstrating that his 2011 Vuelta a Espana second place was not a flash in the pan with a series of impressive rides in the mountains and three rock-solid time-trial performances.

While it would be churlish and incorrect to say that Froome deserved to become the first British winner of the Tour de France - Bradley Wiggins was the best all-round cyclist in the peloton - the Kenya-born, South Africa-raised rider could have ridden away from his Sky teammate on a couple of mountain stages and finished closer than 201 seconds back.

France`s Thomas Voeckler left Paris with the polka dot jersey but it was Froome who was the real king of the mountains during the 99th edition of the world`s most famous bicycle race and his prowess going uphill will serve him well in the Vuelta a Espana, which is a climber`s paradise.

There are some concerns that Froome may be jaded after his Tour de France and London 2012 Olympic Games exploits - he won the men`s road time trial bronze medal behind Wiggins and Germany`s Tony Martin - but those concerns are no greater than those that are hanging over Contador.

Successful sports betting is all about obtaining value and, given the choice between Contador at 8-13 and Froome at 100-30, most savvy punters will side with the Briton.

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19/08/2012     © Frixo 2024