Cirrus Des Aigles to get close to Frankel

British Champions Day brings down the curtain on the British Champions Series and, for the second year in a row, Frankel will be the centre of attention as the world`s highest rated active racehorse makes what everyone expects to be his last racecourse appearance before beginning his stud career.

Unbeaten in 13 starts, Frankel is one of six declarations for the Champion Stakes, with only Cirrus Des Aigles and Nathaniel expected to challenge the Sir Henry Cecil-trained four-year-old colt over Ascot`s testing 10-furlong course.

No horse has come closer to beating Frankel than Nathaniel, with only half a length separating them when they made their debuts in the same Newmarket maiden two years ago. However, Nathaniel is almost certainly better suited to a mile and a half rather than a mile and a quarter and, also, on recent collateral form lines through Farhh and St Nicholas Abbey, he does not rate very favourably against his old foe.

Cirrus Des Aigles won the Champion Stakes last year - he was three-quarters of a length too good for So You Think, with Nathaniel more than three lengths back in fifth - and he is a legitimate threat to Frankel retiring without a loss.

A testing 10 furlongs and soft ground will suit Cirrus Des Aigles perfectly and he is likely to put the frighteners on Frankel, who encountered good-to-firm going when he raced over a mile and a quarter for the first time. That Frankel was impressive in beating Farhh and St Nicholas Abbey by seven lengths is not in doubt but Cirrus Des Aigles is a different beast and so are the forecast conditions.

Frankel has drifted in Champion Stakes winner betting from what were stupidly short odds of 1-10 to a more reasonable 1-5. Frankel should win but, in expectation of Cirrus Des Aigles making a race of it, back the red-hot favourite to prevail by fewer than six lengths at odds of around 5-4.

Excelebration is odds on to win the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes but the five-time loser to Frankel represents poor value at around 4-5 because, while he is the most likely winner of the race, he is not sufficiently far ahead of the other seven declarations to be trading in red numbers.

Soft ground at Ascot means that Cityscape has a good chance of reversing Deauville form with Excelebration but the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes value bet is Carlton House, who would warrant an each-way wager at around 10-1 if the field does not drop below eight and bookmakers pay three places.

Carlton House`s best runs have come when he has been fresh and it just may turn out that somewhere between eight and 10 furlongs is his optimum trip. An Ascot mile on soft going is the equivalent of nine to 10 furlongs on most good tracks.

In the other Group contests on British Champions Day, Great Heavens is fancied to bounce back from her recent sixth in the Prix de l`Arc de Triomphe and win the British Champions Fillies` and Mares` Stakes. She will love the forecast soft ground and she is a cut above her nine rivals. Restiadargent is far too big at double-figure prices to win the British Champions Sprint Stakes, while Opinion Poll is a worthy favourite for the British Champions Long Distance Cup.

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19/10/2012     © Frixo 2024