Wide draw no barrier to Caulfield Cup favourite

Bookmakers and punters have overreacted to the Caulfield Cup draw and the result is that the favourite, Glencadam Gold, has drifted out to a price at which he is worth a bet.

The Caulfield Cup is Australia`s second biggest betting race after the Melbourne Cup and the richest 12-furlong handicap in the world. Marco Botti, Luca Cumani, Mikel Delzangles and Alain de Royer-Dupre have flown horses halfway around the globe to take part and all of their runners have chances.

However, it is a five-year-old gelding who used to ply his trade in the United Kingdom that is the runner to beat in the Caulfield Cup. Glencadam Gold did not scale massive heights in what Australians call the Old Dart but Robbie Waterhouse, the legendary bookmaker married to superstar trainer Gai, liked something in his profile and recommended him to his wife as a potential Melbourne Cup winner.

Glencadam Gold has won all four of his races on Australian soil, improving with every appearance. He won a Canterbury race over a mile in dogged fashion and then took out the Premier`s Cup over nine furlongs at Randwick, kicking away from his nine opponents. The Newcastle Cup over 11 and a half furlongs was next and, even though he ran a little bit green, he led the contest from start to finish. And most recently he romped home in The Metropolitan on Randwick`s Super Saturday, forging clear in the final furlong of 12 to win the Group One event by the best part of four lengths.

The Caulfield Cup barrier draw on Wednesday saw Glencadam Gold get a very wide berth and fall from grace with the Australian bookmaking and punting public. But the reality is that, like most Gai Waterhouse runners, he will go to the front and attempt to make all. Provided that he jumps from the barrier well there is no reason why his wide barrier should be a disadvantage. He is a straightforward ride.

And Glencadam Gold`s victory in The Metropolitan was really, really impressive. His winning margin was the most emphatic in the last 20 years and his winning time of two minutes 29.71 seconds was the fastest since 2005 winner Railings, who went on to Caulfield Cup glory later that year. Also, clock watchers loved his final 600 metres sectional time of 34.88 seconds, which was outstanding in a quick contest.

Gai Waterhouse has booked Jimmy Cassidy to ride Glencadam Gold and the jockey known as Pumper has won the Caulfield Cup twice previously. If anyone can get the favourite from his wide barrier to the front safely and then set the right tempo, it is Cassidy. The jockey booking is an eye catcher.

The biggest danger to Glencadam Gold looks like My Quest For Peace, the Cumani-trained five-year-old entire whose British form in winning two Goodwood events in August puts him in with a shake of winning the Caulfield Cup for his handler who has become obsessed with winning top Australian races.

Drawn in barrier two, My Quest For Peace has been the big post-draw Caulfield Cup gamble and his odds have almost halved. The value in him has disappeared, whereas the opposite applies to Glencadam Gold so back the jolly.

Go To bet365

#Ad

19/10/2012     © Frixo 2024