Wrong Barca star installed as Ballon dOr favourite

Pardon the pun but bookmakers have made a mess of their FIFA Ballon d`Or 2012 markets as voting on the most prestigious individual honour in world football gets under way.

Lionel Messi, who helped FIFA launch this year`s award, is the unoriginal favourite at odds of around 8-13 and, while there is no doubt that the Argentina and Barcelona forward is one of the best footballers of all time, he does not deserve to be odds on to win the prize for the fourth consecutive year. Obviously, bookmakers think that the majority of punters will back Messi at any price.

Bookmakers have got one thing right: the FIFA Ballon d`Or 2012 is a three-man race between Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and Andres Iniesta. With Messi odds on and both Ronaldo and Iniesta trading at around 7-2, there is a value bet and it is the Barcelona and Spain superstar, who started his career as a defensive midfielder but now operates as an attacking midfielder even though he could play pretty much anywhere.

Why is Messi too short in the betting on this year`s FIFA Ballon d`Or? Well, a major negative for Messi is that, as Argentina`s star man, he did not take part in the biggest event on the international football calendar over the last 12 months, the 14th edition of the European Championship.

Messi was a spectator throughout UEFA Euro 2012 and history shows that only European players win the award in European Championship years. Since 1995, when France Football changed the Ballon d`Or constitution to make non-European players eligible provided that they were contracted to a European club, the prize winner in European Championship years has always been a European - Matthias Sammer in 1996, Luis Figo in 2000, Andriy Shevchenko in 2004 and Ronaldo in 2008.

Of course, Messi could win the FIFA Ballon d`Or 2012 but surely that statistic is sufficient for anyone with half a brain not to go anywhere near him at 8-13. One would have to be interested at around, say, 2-1 but look on at odds on. It is not as if his Barca team won everything that moved in the 2011-2012 season. Indeed, the Nou Camp side failed to win either the Spanish La Liga or the UEFA Champions League.

Ronaldo was second to Messi in last year`s FIFA Ballon d`Or vote. He won the old France Football-sanctioned competition in 2008 and, also, was the runner-up in 2007 and 2009 so he has form in the event. But he won only the Spanish La Liga title with Real Madrid and he was unable to lift Portugal past Spain in the UEFA Euro 2012 semi-finals. He would be a worthy favourite had Real won the UEFA Champions League but, like Barcelona, it crashed and burned in the last four.

Iniesta is the one to beat and he should be a lot shorter than 7-2. The Barcelona and Spain midfielder was the UEFA Euro 2012 player of the tournament and he was man of the match in his country`s 4-0 victory over France in the Kiev title decider. Also, he headed off both Messi and Ronaldo to win the UEFA Best Player in Europe Award this year, polling 19 votes, two more than the Portuguese and the Argentinian.

The failure of Barca to win either the Spanish La Liga or the UEFA Champions League will not hamper Iniesta anything like as much as it will hamper Messi because the Spaniard has UEFA Euro 2012 success on which to fall back. Get on Iniesta at 7-2, which is at least 20 per cent over the odds because of bookmakers quoting Messi at too short a price.

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19/10/2012     © Frixo 2024