Betting Without Top Six

Newcastle are the 13/5 (bet365) favourites to finish top of the betting ‘without the big six’ (Both Manchester sides, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool). The Geordies finished last season nine points above everybody else in this market. Many people think Newcastle will go backwards this season, but there is no reason why they should and with the addition of a few more players they could go even closer in their challenge for the Champions League. Not only have bookmakers made a mistake in placing Newcastle in this market, they have made a mistake in being so generous in pricing them at 13/5.

The nearest challengers in this market look to be Everton who are priced at 3/1 (paddy Power) or 5/2 (bet365- who offer each-way the first three). Everton finished seventh last season and should finish around this spot again this season. The signing of Nikica Jelavic has solved the long standing problem of no goalscorer and if they can secure a deal for the creatitive talents of Steven Pienaar there is no reason why Everton should not push for a Europa League spot.

This leaves just one place in the each-way market (an option only available with bet365). Fulham finished ninth last season, (four points behind Everton) and Martin Jol will be hopeful his side can push on this season. bet365 make Fulham 9/1, but they might struggle this season. Jol suffered a blow with the news that Pavel Pogrebnyak had chosen to join newly promoted Reading. Hugo Rodallega and Mladen Petric have been added to replace the departed Pogrebnyak (Johnson and Zamora have also left). The future of Clint Dempsey could be key for Fulham with news that Liverpool are in hot pursuit. If Fulham lose him then they are a radically different side from last season and might struggle.

Bet365 have Sunderland at 9/1 after a great second half of the season under Martin O’Neill and will hope to push on this season. The work in the transfer market though has been a little slow with only Carlos Cuellar added to the mix and with Nicklas Bendtner gone the Black Cats look a work in progress. Next in the betting are Aston Villa at 10/1, Villa have appointed Paul Lambert as their new boss after his succesful time at Norwich. Villa have made a number of solid signings and with Darren Bent up top will hope to go better this season. Stoke are 12/1, but struggled at times last season and have yet to make any real movement in the transfer market. QPR are 16/1 and will look to go better than last season when they needed last day results to go their way to survive. Some solid signings should see them okay this season, but they do not look the value. Swansea at 20/1 might be the way to go, sure they have lost Brendan Rodgers, but Michael Laudrup looks the perfect replacement. The work in the transfer market has looked good with Chico and Jonathan joining and Michu expected to sign soon. If they can keep Joe Allen from Liverpool there is no reason why Swansea can not only match their efforts of last season, but push on and go better. It also might be worth throwing Norwich in at 28/1 as they finished on exactly the same points as Swansea last season and have kept key players John Ruddy and Grant Holt.

It seems that the race without the top six could be one of the most wide open of all the betting markets this year.

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20/07/2012     © Frixo 2024