Crusaders to tame Bulls in Christchurch

Back the favourites to win the first two games in this year`s Super Rugby play-offs as the Crusaders, Bulls, Reds and Sharks fight for the right to stay in the competition.

The Crusaders entertain the Bulls in the first match, with the winner of the Christchurch clash facing either the Stormers in Cape Town or the Chiefs in Hamilton, depending on the result of the second game in Brisbane.

If history is any guide, the Crusaders will win. They have won 14 of the 15 finals matches they have played in New Zealand, with their only loss coming against the Blues at Eden Park in Auckland nine years ago. The Bulls, on the other hand, have lost all three of their finals games outside South Africa. So it is advantage, the Crusaders.

The teams met during this year`s Super Rugby regular season on Saturday 7 April 2012 at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria. The Bulls won 32-30 but the Crusaders were away from home, not at full strength - for example, All Black captain Richie McCaw was absent - and desperately unlucky not to prevail.

The Crusaders were value for more than the 13-9 lead at they had going into half time, with the Bulls hanging on for dear life in the first 40 minutes. Credit where credit is due, the Bulls fought back well but the fact remains that the injury-hit Crusaders outscored them three tries to two.

The Bulls were in great form during the middle of the Super Rugby regular season but they come into the play-offs not in the best of shape. The Bulls have won only two of their last half a dozen matches, with their two wins at the expense of struggling sides, the Cheetahs and Lions. The opposite is true of the Crusaders, who have won eight of their last 10 games and have Daniel Carter, McCaw and most of their big guns on board for the business end of the season.

Bookmakers have set the handicap line at around nine and a half points. The Crusaders are superb frontrunners and, if they can get out to an early lead, they could run away with the match. Therefore, back the Crusaders against the spread.

The Reds and the Sharks lock horns at Suncorp Stadium and there have been two major talking points in the lead up to it: first, the appointment of Durban-born referee Jonathan Kaplan - the Sharks are based in the port city - and second, the one-game suspension of Reds five-eighth Quade Cooper.

The decision to appoint Kaplan may actually work in favour of the Reds. The referee who polarises opinion at the best of times will be desperate not to be seen favouring his local team, the Sharks. And the Reds are better equipped to deal with Cooper`s absence than they were at the beginning of 2012 when the Wallabies star was out through injury.

As touched upon earlier in this article, home advantage is a huge factor in Super Rugby matches. The Reds have won 21 of their last 23 games at Suncorp Stadium, whereas the Sharks have won just three of their eight road matches this year.

The sides met at Mr Price Kings Park on Saturday March 17 2012, with the Reds only going down 22-27 despite suffering every possible misfortune after leading 17-0 early on. The Reds ended up using halfback Will Genia at five-eighth and third-string goalkicker after injuries forced off inside centre Mike Harris in the first half and five-eighth Ben Lucas in the second period. Cooper was absent and Reds winger Digby Ioane sat out the first 10 minutes of the second half after being sin-binned for a lifting tackle.

The Reds-Sharks game should be a fair bit closer than the Crusaders-Bulls one so stick with backing the Reds straight up at around 1-2 rather than against the spread, which bookmakers have set at around five points.

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20/07/2012     © Frixo 2024