Martins run of bad luck odds on to end

It is hard to look past odds-on favourite Tony Martin in the elite men`s time trial at the UCI Road World Championships given the serious lack of depth in the 58-cyclist field.

Martin has had a year characterised by bad luck at the worst possible times. It has been a genuine annus horribilis for the German, with his moments of misfortune including a collision with a car while training, a broken hand during the Tour de France and several in-race punctures. And who could forget the dog that crossed his path during his time trial battle versus Bradley Wiggins in Portugal? Whatever could go wrong has gone wrong for Martin during 2012.

But maybe Martin`s luck has changed for the better. Two of the riders whom he beat to win last year`s world title in Denmark are missing from this year`s Netherlands entry list. Fabian Cancellara is recovering from shoulder surgery, while Tour de France champion and London 2012 Olympic Games gold medallist Wiggins is having a well earned rest, although he will participate in the elite men`s road race on Sunday.

Also skipping the elite men`s time trial is Chris Froome, the British cyclist was second in the Tour de France and third in the London 2012 Olympic Games men`s time trial. He is exhausted after completing the Vuelta a Espana recently, a race in which he did not live up to expectations as the effects of chasing Wiggins around France took their toll.

According to bookmakers, Martin is around 8-11 to win his second consecutive world title. Only Alberto Contador and Fredrik Kessiakoff are trading at single-figure prices as well, although the 25-1 available about Taylor Phinney is disrespectful. He should be the third or fourth favourite.

In terms of picking the winner, it really should boil down to a race between Martin and Contador and, based on any number of important factors, the German gets the nod.

For starters, while Martin has raced extensively this year it would be more than fair to say that the UCI Road World Championships have been his main goal. He is desperate to retain the crown that he won in 2011, demonstrated by the fact that he has ridden the hilly Valkenburg course seven times and spent months studying a video of it. In stark contrast, Contador saw it for the first this week.

And then there is the race order. Martin will be the last rider to roll down the steep start ramp, two minutes behind Contador and another two minutes behind Phinney. The German will have the benefit of real-time splits on his greatest rivals, something that will be of genuine use as he pedals his way along the narrow, testing 46.3-kilometre course.

There are many cyclists who have a reasonable chance of grabbing a silver or bronze medal - they include Phinney, Kesiaskoff, Tejay Van Garderen, Bert Grabsch, Marco Pinnotti, Sebastian Chavenel, Swein Tuft and Lieuwe Westra - but the gold looks booked for the defending champion.

Even Contador admits that Martin is a big favourite so cop the top and back the German at 8-11. One gets the feeling that, if Contador knew anything about odds, he would have answered the question by saying that Martin was overpriced.

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20/09/2012     © Frixo 2024