Germans to beat Greek grinders in low-scoring tie

Germany and Greece face off for the right to play either England or Italy in the Euro 2012 semi-finals and a game low on excitement and, ultimately, goals is the best bet.

The Germans have won their last 14 competitive matches, a record for the three-time European champions, and punters who do not shy away from short odds will take the general 1-3 about them and say that it is better than bank interest.

However, should you take 1-3 about any team - even Spain - beating the Greeks in 90 minutes? Probably not. Yes, Greece is a very limited football outfit but it knows how to defend having won Euro 2004 despite being on the back foot for most of the tournament and, as silly it may seem, it is likely to approach the Gdansk game with a plan to get to a penalty competition and take it chance in the spot-kick raffle.

The Greeks are without two players who were naughty boys in their Group A matches, with Giorgos Karagounis and Jose Holebas suspended for committing two cautionable offences apiece. Arguably, Greece will be better off without them.

Greek captain Karagounis, who equalled Theodoros Zagorakis` national record of 120 caps against Russia, and Holebas are the left-sided players whom the Poles, Czechs and Russians exploited time and time again in the round-robin phase.

The absences of Karagounis and Holebas, particularly the Germany-born latter who is a defender who does not defend, should reduce significantly the probability of the Germans making hay through their excellent right-sided players, right back Jerome Boateng and midfielder Thomas Muller.

Greece is going to set up to contain Germany and look to score from set pieces when they come along, which is likely to be infrequently. The Greeks have engineered only eight clear-cut chances in the tournament so far, scoring three goals. They could send the most hyperactive kid to sleep.

The Germans have a reputation for finding the back of the net - they have scored in each of their last 19 games and netted 34 times in their 10 qualifying matches - but the fact is, while striker Mario Gomez has attracted the Euro 2012 headlines, defenders have been their star performers.

Boateng, who returns after sitting out Germany`s 2-1 win over Denmark through suspension, Lars Bender, Mats Hummel and goalkeeper Manuel Neuer have been great for Joachim Low`s side. It has been their excellent performances that have got the Germany to the last eight with three victories.

The best bet is the sudden-death clash featuring fewer than three goals - otherwise known as under 2.5 goals - at odds of about evens. Clearly, bookmakers think that the Germans are going to run riot but a low-scoring win is more likely.

Punters who like odds-against wagers should have no trouble finding at least 9-4 about Germany being either 1-0 or 2-0 to the good at the end of normal time. Throw in 3-0 and the odds drop to about 6-4 but, even then, it represents better value than the 1-3 about the Germans winning by any score.

In other Euro 2012 news, punters have backed the English into favouritism for their tie versus the Italians. That is despite England not having won any of its most recent three games against Italy. However, the teams have not met since 2002 when the Italians prevailed by a 2-1 margin in Leeds.

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21/06/2012     © Frixo 2024