Irish rain to favour Oaks filly Great Heavens

The Irish Oaks headlines the eight-race Curragh card and it has attracted a strong field, including the winners of the Epsom Oaks, Ribblesdale Stakes and Lancashire Oaks in Was, Princess Highway and Great Heavens respectively.

Was won the Epsom Oaks at a starting price of 20-1, beating Irish Oaks opponent Shirocco Star by a neck, with The Fugue another half a length back in third. The Fugue was somewhat unlucky but, even if John Gosden`s favourite had not been hampered, she would not have beaten Was by far, if at all.

The Epsom Oaks form is not working out well. The Fugue and Shirocco Star were six lengths and more behind Princess Highway in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot and no filly that was unplaced in the English middle-distance classic for females has done anything special since.

Was is open to improvement - the three-year-old daughter of Galileo has only made three racecourse appearances - but, on face value, she is not the best betting option available.

Princess Highway is the form horse of the Irish Oaks. Two and three-quarter lengths too good for Was at Naas back in May, she missed the Epsom Oaks but demonstrated her ability by winning the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot readily.

The Dermot Weld-trained daughter of Street Cry made headway four furlongs from home, moved into the lead before the furlong market and burst clear to win by a half a dozen lengths from the Epsom Oaks silver and bronze medallists.

The ground at Royal Ascot was officially good to soft but many of the jockeys who rode the course on that day were of the opinion that it was better than that, if not by much.

The forecast ground for The Curragh is soft, or yielding as clerks of the course in Ireland report. And that is the issue with backing Princess Highway to win the Irish Oaks and cement her position as 2012`s best three-year-old filly.

Princess Highway made her racecourse debut on a Leopardstown track described as yielding and it did not go according to plan. Sent off the 2-1 joint favourite, Pat Smullen`s mount did not pick up the pace when asked questions early in the straight and finished eighth of 17, five and three-quarter lengths behind Eternal Bounty, who has yet to win again.

Therefore, the best bet in the Irish Oaks is Great Heavens. A full sister of Nathaniel, the three-year-old offspring of Galileo and Magnificent Style has won her last three races, taking out the Lancashire Oaks in impressive style on her last start. Gosden`s charge made all under Robert Havlin, drew clear two furlongs out and, despite being eased down, finished five lengths clear of Shimmering Surf.

Shimmering Surf`s previous run had resulted in a Group Three victory so the form of the Lancashire Oaks looks solid and, critically in view of the most probable Irish Oaks ground conditions, the race was run on soft ground at Haydock.

In her short career Great Heavens has not raced on anything better than good-to-soft ground so she is guaranteed to handle whatever The Curragh throws at her and the fact that her connections coughed up serious money to supplement her at late notice must be viewed as a pretty strong positive.

It is looking as if Great Heavens will start the narrowest of Irish Oaks favourites. Any odds of 2-1 or longer about Nathaniel`s relative would have to represent value.

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21/07/2012     © Frixo 2024