Valverde set to succeed Cavendish as world champion

Mark Cavendish is the reigning elite men`s road race world champion but the Manx has next to no chance of winning the rainbow jersey up for grabs in the Netherlands on Sunday.

Bookmakers have not made a mistake in listing Cavendish at around 80-1 to go back to back. If anything, the winner of 23 Tour de France stages should be 800-1 given the course that the UCI has devised for this year`s championship.

The course is 265 kilometres in length and, crucially, it features one steep hill after another. The first 100km will take the cyclists through the province of Limburg on a route that features seven short and sharp climbs. The second half of the race will unfold over 10 laps of a 16.5km circuit that has two testing climbs - the Bemelerberg that goes for 900 metres and the infamous Cauberg that lasts for 1.5km.

The riders are going to be thoroughly sick of the sight of the Cauberg by the time that they cross the finishing line and that is why it will take a miracle for sprint superstar Cavendish to retain the title that he won last year.

So who is the best bet? Well, bookmakers have singled out Philippe Gilbert as the favourite, with the Belgian trading at around 7-2 to succeed Cavendish. Gilbert heads the market because of his superb performances in the Amstel Gold Race, in which the Cauberg plays a prominent role. In the annual April event, cyclists go up the Cauberg three times.

Only one rider has won the Amstel Gold Race more times than Gilbert, with the classics specialist taking out the 2010 and 2011 editions. The Belgian is one of only two cyclists to have won all three Ardennes classics - the Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege - in the same calendar year - and he is sure to be thereabouts.

However, Gilbert is worth taking on at the odds because this year`s elite men`s road race course differs from those used in the three Ardennes classics because it does not feature an uphill finish. There is 1.7km from the top of the last climb to the line and that could play into the hands of Alejandro Valverde, the general third favourite at 12-1.

Valverde comes into the UCI Road World Championships off the back of an excellent Vuelta a Espana in which he won three stages and finished second overall. The Spaniard has the perfect skill set for the Netherlands challenge since he possesses both strong climbing and sprinting ability.

On face value, Valverde has every bit as good as chance of claiming the rainbow jersey as both Gilbert and Peter Sagan, the Slovakian sensation who is the second favourite at around 5-1, yet he is on offer at double-figure odds.

Sagan will be a serious player if he can stay in touch with the main group up the final ascent of the Cauberg but that is a big if given the number of times that the peloton must negotiate the legendary hill. He would be the pick if the Cauberg was not so heavily featured but he is going to struggle to be there at the death after so many climbs.

Valverde may not be everyone`s cup of tea - he is back after serving a two-year doping suspension - but he is overpriced to go one better than he did in both 2003 and 2005.

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21/09/2012     © Frixo 2024