Wales aim to break 61 year record against New Zealand

Autumn International

Rugby
Published: 21/11/2014

Wales take on New Zealand in their penultimate autumn rugby international at the Millennium Stadium, Cardiff on Saturday evening and Wales coach Warren Gatland knows that they are in for a huge test.

The Welsh have not been at their best so far this autumn, losing their opening match 28-33 to Australia and then struggling to get over the line against Fiji, a match they were expected to win by a much more comfortable scoreline than 17-13. The most disappointing aspect of that match against Fiji would have been the fact that Wales were 17-6 up at half-time, only for Fiji to close the gap in the second half, having had a man sent off. These two results and performances, especially the latter, may have something to do with the 11/2 being offered by BetVictor for Wales to defeat New Zealand in this game.

With both teams already announced, Wales have made one change from the team that lost to Australia and that sees Jonathan Davies come in to the centre to partner Jamie Roberts as Wales revert back to their full strength team after the Fiji match. Gatland will want his team to make a strong start to the match and will be looking towards winger George North to provide the impetus for Wales. North scored his first try last week against Fiji since his double in the Six Nations win over Scotland back in March and will be determined to put in a good display against tough opposition. North is available at 14/1 with SkyBet to score the first try of the game.

New Zealand have enjoyed a 100% record so far on their tour of the Northern Hemisphere and will aim to continue that good run against Wales in Cardiff. New Zealand came back strongly against a tough England team at Twickenham two weeks ago, coming back from an 11-14 deficit to win the match 24-21. The All Blacks second game in the British Isles was against Scotland last week in which coach Steve Hansen rotated his squad and gave some of the fringe players a chance to show what they could do. New Zealand were not at their impressive best but still came away with a 24-16 victory. However, the All Blacks have gone back to their first choice side for this match and are available at 1/7 with ladbrokes to defeat Wales.

Having scored two tries against the United States in Chicago at the start of the month, Julian Savea currently has 29 tries to his name and is one of the leading try scorers in international test rugby that is still active today. Savea`s quick hands and devastating pace is sure to cause the Welsh back line problems and he is 11/2 with SkyBet to touch down the first try of the game.

To put this match in to context, New Zealand have not lost to Wales since 1953, having played 25 matches in that period and won them all. This is the longest losing sequence against a single opponent in tier one international test history. Furthermore, New Zealand have only suffered one defeat in their last 25 matches and this makes it almost impossible to back Wales in this game. Therefore, looking at other betting options, the average winning margin of New Zealand over Wales is 20 points and this can be backed at 33/1 with paddypower, however, a more astute margin to back may be the 6-10 points being offered at 6/1 by stanjames. In 7 of the 9 meetings between these two teams in the Northern Hemisphere there have been over 4.5 tries scored and this is available at 8/11 with bet365.

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Any odds displayed within this article were correct at the time of publishing (21/11/2014) but are subject to change.

21/11/2014     © Frixo 2024

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