English false favourites to get pasta Italians

Which Euro 2012 quarter-final qualifier created nine fewer goal-scoring opportunities and took 11 fewer corner kicks than its three group opponents yet is the favourite for its sudden-death tie in the last eight of the tournament?

Pat yourself on the back if you answered England and then ask yourself if you want to back the Three Lions to knock out Italy in the fourth and final quarter-final clash.

Roy Hodgson has done a great job in galvanising the English side in such a short space of time. The team spirit is there for all to see, something that could not be said during the ill-fated four-year reign of Italian coach Fabio Capello.

But facts are facts. England engineered only 11 clear-cut chances in their three Group D matches versus France, Sweden and Ukraine, conceding 20 opportunities to their opponents.

And the English forced only 13 corner kicks during the first phase of Euro 2012, whereas they had to defend 24 of them.

Another incredible but telling statistic from the group stage is this: England was one of only two sides not to catch any of its opponents offside. The other was Greece.

The English are playing safety-first football under their defensive-minded manager, sitting deep because they are worried getting beaten for pace down the middle and, consequently, inviting pressure from good attackers.

England beat Ukraine 1-0 to win Group D but let it not be overlooked that it did not muster a single shot on target during the first half against a home team that the French beat relatively comfortably in the section`s second round.

One of the reasons other than patriotic punting by English fans as to why British bookmakers are trading the match at the odds that they are is because Hodgson`s men face an Italy side that is not one of the country`s best ever.

The Italians had gone five games without a win before they got the better of Ireland by two goals to nil in Poznan on Monday but they are unbeaten at Euro 2012, including a 1-1 draw with the Spaniards that could end up being the closest that anyone gets to toppling the reigning champions.

Unlike England, Italy is in positive statistical territory: it has fashioned 20 good openings compared to the 11 of its opponents and it has earned 20 corner kicks, giving up 15.

All bar one of the six Euro 2012 matches featuring either the English or the Italians has gone under the 2.5 total goals line and, with the knockout tie likely to cause both teams to adopt a cautious approach, you can understand why the under is very short at general odds of around 4-9.

Punters who do not want to take such a low price should consider backing Italy to win because England, based on the statistical data cited above, is a false favourite.

The choice is between the Italians to win in 90 minutes, which is available at around 15-8, or Cesare Prandelli`s side to progress by any method at around 10-11.

Obviously, the 10-11 bet is the safer avenue to take and, in the circumstances, it rates as the better of the two also.

Go To bet365

#Ad

22/06/2012     © Frixo 2024