Frankel has changed the game for Black Caviar

There are half a dozen races on the final day of Royal Ascot but you would be forgiven for thinking that there was only one - the Diamond Jubilee Stakes starring Black Caviar.

This time last week the odds were against the Australian superstar winning her first international race by a bumper margin, mainly because her connections, headed up by Peter Moody and Luke Nolen, were unlikely to ask their favourite girl to give everything she has got in the final stages.

Black Caviar has won 21 consecutive sprint races since debuting at Melbourne`s Flemington in April 2009 but never has she triumphed by more than six lengths, which given the reputation that she has brought to England, seems strange.

However, the reason for this is simple: Moody, Nolen and Black Caviar`s lucky owners have always taken a long-term view and acted in the best interests of the mighty mare, happy to keep win races by comfortable but unspectacular distances. It is an approach that has served them well.

But Frankel`s brilliant 11-length romp in the Queen Anne Stakes in the opening race of this year`s Royal Ascot meeting may have changed the Black Caviar game forever.

The chance that Black Caviar`s connections will want their champion to win at Royal Ascot emphatically increased the moment that Frankel passed the winning post 11 lengths in front of several other Group One-standard milers.

Also, it seems that the daughter of Bel Esprit will not be hanging around for Newmarket`s July Cup so there is less of a need for her to conserve her energy at Royal Ascot.

The failure of Ortensia to justify favouritism in the King`s Stand Stakes - the Australian raider finished ninth behind Little Bridge - has seen British bookmakers lengthen their odds about Black Caviar winning the Diamond Jubilee Stakes.

Australian bookmakers, who know Ortensia and Black Caviar better than their Commonwealth cousins, have not done anything of the sort. Indeed, Black Caviar`s odds have shortened throughout the week with Australia`s layers.

Racing fans in Australia are convinced that Black Caviar will issue a response to Frankel`s fabulous run and, in doing so, run our a very comfortable winner of a Diamond Jubilee Stakes that features Midnight Cloud, Society Rock and Krypton Factor, who won a big race in Dubai recently.

Australian punters are betting that Black Caviar will win her first race overseas by the most emphatic margin of her stellar career and you can see why: she is a class or two above her 14 opponents and Frankel has upped the ante.

Several British bookmakers are offering attractive prices about Black Caviar winning by more than three and a half lengths (7-4), more than five lengths (5-1) and more than seven lengths (7-1). There are lots of special markets.

Shop around and see what is the best price that you can get about Black Caviar winning the most important race of her life by more than five lengths. The 5-1 mentioned above is more than acceptable given what happened on Tuesday. But do not get too greedy; the likelihood of the six-year-old mare equalling or bettering Frankel`s 11 lengths is very slim.

One final note about the Royal Ascot going, which has been good to soft for most of the week. Some pundits are saying that Black Caviar may struggle on wet ground. Do not believe a word of it. She has won on wet ground several times and, contrary to popular opinion among Britons, it does rain in Australia. And when it does, it rains very heavily indeed.

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22/06/2012     © Frixo 2024