Ortensia to win Nunthorpe Stakes for Australia

Pearl Secret is the hype horse in the Nunthorpe Stakes but it may pay to stick with proven Group One quality and back Ortensia to win the feature race on the third day of the Yorkshire Ebor Festival on the superb Knavesmire track.

Unbeaten in four starts and one of only three three-year-old thoroughbreds among the 20 Nunthorpe Stakes acceptors, Pearl Secret is one of four runners whom bookmakers are quoting at single-figure prices to win the five-furlong York sprint.

The Compton Place colt`s trainer, David Barron, is not one for hyperbole so it is significant that this accomplished handler of sprinters is on the record as saying that Pearl Secret is the best horse ever to come under his care.

Clearly Pearl Secret is the Nunthorpe Stakes contender who is open to the most improvement but, having only won at Listed level before, he is going to need to improve substantially to take out the Group One contest.

If Barron is right in his assessment then Pearl Secret would win the Nunthorpe Stakes - the trainer has had a runner-up in the race previously so he knows what is required - but the undefeated colt`s confirmation suggests that he would prefer softer going than he is likely to get in York and, also, he is short in the market given his official rating.

Contesting Nunthorpe Stakes favouritism with Pearl Secret are Bated Breath, Sole Power and Ortensia, with July Cup winner Mayson withdrawing because of York`s fast ground.

Bated Breath is a consistent performer whose best runs have taken place on going on the firm side of good. The Roger Charlton-trained five-year-old son of Dansili could not quicken on Royal Ascot`s good-to-soft ground in June, finishing a close second to Little Bridge in the King`s Stand Stakes over the Berkshire`s course five furlongs.

York`s five furlongs is flatter and less stiff than that of Royal Ascot so Bated Breath has a good chance of breaking his Group One duck. There is, however, a suspicion that he is just short of top class, hence his four seconds, one fifth, one eighth and one ninth in his seven races in the highest grade so he does not get the Nunthorpe Stakes nod.

Neither does Sole Power, who won the 2010 Nunthorpe Stakes at 100-1. Edward Lynam`s five-year-old son of Kyllachy has proven that his Group One success was not a total fluke and he was the only King`s Stand Stakes runner drawn high to feature in the finish of the Royal Ascot dash for cash.

But Sole Power has won only two of his 22 starts and has drawn blanks on each of his last 10 appearances. Those are not the statistics of a Nunthorpe Stakes runner crying out to be backed at what are fairly short ante-post odds.

Ortensia is the proven Group One sprinter in the Nunthorpe Stakes who, after disappointing on unfavourable going at Royal Ascot and Newmarket, bounced back to winning ways in the King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood on good ground.

The Australian raider won the Group Two King George Stakes well despite carrying a Group One penalty, showing off her trademark blistering turn of foot that the soft going at Royal Ascot and Newmarket had rendered ineffective.

Provided that Ortensia does not get wound up making her way to the York stalls, something that she is prone to do, she will take a lot of beating on a York track that should suit her racing style perfectly. The Aussie is the one to beat.

Go To bet365

#Ad

23/08/2012     © Frixo 2024