PATRIOTS value outsiders to win Super Bowl

American Football
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Published: 19/01/2014

Just four teams remain in the hunt for Super Bowl 48 which is scheduled to take conclude February 2nd from the Metlife Stadium in New Jersey. This weekend sees the Conference finals and it is the NFC side Seattle who are the bookmakers favourites at odds of 15/8 (william hill). The Seahawks were the first team to clinch a spot in the postseason and have a 14 game home win streak ahead of hosting San Francisco. Lead by quarterback Russell Wilson and running back Marshawn Lynch Seattle have a strong attack that ranked eighth in points scored in the regular season. Better still they have the meanest defence in the league a group that take pride in their nickname of the ’Legion of Boom.’ The Seahawks to me are the best team remaining though I think the game with San Francisco could be super close and as such I would be unwilling to side with either.

Denver are next in the market at 9/4 (william hill/BWIN) and they are scheduled to take on New England in the AFC final. The Broncos are the best offensive unit in the game, lead by the quarterback Peyton Manning. Manning and the Broncos can explode with points going over 50 three times this season while five players have ten or more touchdowns which shows their offensive variety. Denver need their defence to tighten up as they were the 11th most generous during the regular season.

San Francisco are the 7/2 (GENERAL) third favourites as they look to go one step better than last season when they finished as runners-up. The 49ers are coming into form at just the right time with the welcome return of Michael Crabtree seeing them go seven games unbeaten. Throw in Anquan Boldin, the running game of Frank Gore, a defence that is allowing just 14.5 points per game since week 4 and this is a side who have to be respected.

The outsiders of the four are New England who can be backed at odds of 11/2 (WILLIAM HILL/SPREADEX). In the anything goes nature of end of season American Football I have to think that the Patriots are the value. They are probably the weakest of the four remaining teams though they are not 11/2 weakest. New England have the been there done that edge of coach Bill Belichick who is a three time Super Bowl winner. Belichick has a 5-2 record in Conference Championship games while Tom Brady has a 10-4 winning record over Manning as a quaterback. The Patriots meanwhile have won their last four against the Broncos. Take the 2/1 (GENERAL) on them to beat Denver and the 11/2 (WILLIAM HILL/SPREADEX) on them to be crowned Super Bowl 48 champions.

Going back to the game between Seattle and San Francisco and I think some value can be found in the anytime touchdown scorer market. I like the look of Michael Crabtree at odds of 2/1 (paddy Power). True the player has not looked at full strength since his return from injury but the Panthers showed the dangers of giving him too much respect and allowing Anquan Boldin eight catches for 136 yards. The Seawhawks will have taken notice of this and will up the pressure on Boldin though that in itself will allow Crabtree more freedom and he has too much talent to ignore. At 2/1 he has to be backed to get among the scorers.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: New England Patriots to beat Denver Broncos, 2/1 (GENERAL)
SILVER: New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl, 11/2 (WILLIAM HILL/SPREADEX)
BRONZE: Michael Crabtree to score anytime TD v Seattle, 2/1 (paddy Power)

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