Bears to soldier on against the spread

Chicago has the very best against-the-spread record in the National Football League this season and it can improve upon it by covering the general six-and-a-half-point line when Detroit drives into Soldier Field for Monday Night Football.

The Bears are both 4-1 against the spread and 4-1 straight up and they have bossed the Lions in their recent divisional clashes, with Lovie Smith`s improving side winning seven of the last eight matches between the National Football Conference North rivals dating back to October 2008.

Chicago has the best rush defence in the National Football League, with it giving up a mean of just 65.8 yards per game this term. Teams with better running games than that of Detroit have found it difficult to move the ball on the ground versus the Bears so the Lions are likely to find themselves having throw pass after pass after pass.

Detroit is a passing team - quarterback Matthew Stafford loves to link up with Calvin Johnson, the outstanding wide receiver whom everyone calls Megatron - and its pass offence ranks second only to New Orleans on average yards per match.

The Lions, however, are somewhat one-dimensional because of Stafford`s love of seeking out Megatron and it shows up in other key statistics. For example, they have a third-down conversion rate of just 33.8 per cent, which is almost five points below the National Football League average. And it means them particularly vulnerable at Soldier Field.

Chicago has conceded the fewest points in the National Football League - 71 in five games for a competition-leading mean of 14.2 - and its opponents have converted only 29% of their third downs into first downs. Furthermore, it has 17 takeaways and returned five interceptions for touchdowns.

The Bears ought to be able to stop Detroit running the ball fairly easily and, therefore, devote most of their energies to limiting the Lions in the air. Megatron will be double teamed on most plays and Stafford, even though he has other options, will still try and find his preferred receiver to often for the overall good of the visiting side.

On a line through St Louis, Chicago deserves to be a warmer favourite over Detroit than it is so back the Bears to beat the Lions by more than the spread. It is important that one bets at six and a half points and does not play at seven.

Bookmakers have set the total points line at a flat 47 and, at that level, there is no obvious value on either side in spite of numerous Chicago-Detroit trends favouring the over.

The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Bears and the Lions in Chicago and, also, 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the teams anywhere. But never in any of those meetings has the line between higher than 47 points and that is what kills following the trend on Monday.

If one must strike a total points bet then side with the under but expect to have a nervous second half if the match goes according to the script. Detroit will go for broke in the air if it is behind in the third and fourth quarters and, if Stafford connects to Megatron and company, the points tally could go from low to high very quickly.

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24/10/2012     © Frixo 2024