Bet against the crowd and back the Bucs

American football punters have backed New Orleans into favouritism for its National Football League road game at Tampa Bay, which opens the way for a bet on the Buccaneers.

The Saints are what is known as a public team, a household name that attracts bets regardless of odds. Las Vegas-based bookmakers opened betting on the Week Seven match with New Orleans as the one-point away underdog but now it is giving up points despite starting the National Football League season poorly and having the bottom-ranked defence.

Conceding an average of 456 yards and 30.8 points per game, the Saints are 1-4 straight up and 2-3 against the spread. They have not won on the road yet and, even in their only win of the term, they were outgained by a Chargers side that is struggling to convince anyone in or out of San Diego.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 2-1 at home this season and 4-1 against the spread irrespective of venue. The Buccaneers beat New Orleans 26-20 in Florida last term and they are coming off a morale-boosting 30-18 thrashing of Kansas City.

Tampa Bay`s rush defence is the third best in the National Football League and it will smother the running game of the Saints, which is the third worst according to the current rankings. The Buccaneers have a better balanced offence than New Orleans and the reliance of the Saints on their passing game can sometimes be their downfall in noisy away stadia.

There is no rational way to justify the market move for New Orleans. The opening Vegas line was correct so bet against the crowd and back Tampa Bay at odds against. The spread is unlikely to hit three points so stick to the money line.

Injuries to Baltimore defenders has seen the line for its match at Houston move from four to six and a half points. Provided that one can back the Texans conceding fewer than seven points, which is one of the most magical of American football`s magic numbers, that is another value play.

As big as the loss of superstar linebacker Ray Lewis is for the Ravens, the absence of cornerback Lardarius Webb is just as severe. Baltimore`s pass defence was hurting even with Webb on board so now it is going to be in a world of pain.

Houston ought to be able to enjoy success both running and passing the football in this meeting of the only two teams in the American Football Conference with winning records.

The Texans will be desperate to make amends for their shock 24-42 home loss at the hands of the Packers and they get the nod because of the major headaches facing the Ravens on the defensive side of the ball. Baltimore`s injury woes are so great that its perfect head-to-head record against Houston - it leads the young rivalry 6-0 - does not mean much at all.

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24/10/2012     © Frixo 2024