Home in on Genk, Newcastle, Lyon and Levante

There are several attractively priced home teams in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday and the pick of them is Genk for its game versus Sporting in the Flanders region of Belgium.

Genk is unbeaten in its last nine competitive home matches, including seven victories, and it has kicked off its UEFA Europa League Group G campaign with a 3-0 home win over Videoton and a 2-2 draw at Basel. Sporting is without an away victory in eight games and it is on one point from its matches against Basel (0-0 at home) and Videoton (0-3 away).

Incredibly, Genk is not the favourite with some bookmakers in spite of the statistics quoted above. The Belgian side is around 13-8 to beat its Portuguese opponent and that is a fair few rolls over the odds. It should be around 5-4.

Newcastle is the favourite for its UEFA Europa League Group D home game versus Club Brugge but bookmakers have not gone far enough in quoting the Magpies at around the 8-13 mark.

Only Manchester City and Manchester United have beaten the Toon Army at St James` Park this year, with Newcastle`s home record in meaningful matches reading 12 wins, three draws and two losses for a win percentage in excess of 70%.

Club Brugge is top of the Belgian Pro League after 11 rounds but it would be weaker than the majority of English Premier League teams and its away form is not all that flash. For example, it drew 2-2 at Birmingham 13 months ago. All things considered, Newcastle should be trading at 1-2 or shorter.

At around 10-11, Lyon gets the green light for its UEFA Europa League Group I home game against Athletic, the Spanish La Liga side with appalling away numbers.

The Bilbao-based team has drawn two and lost the other eight of its last 10 competitive matches on the road, including losing 1-2 at Slaven Koprivnica in Croatia, losing 1-3 at Sparta Praha in the Czech Republic and drawing 3-3 at HJK in Finland, and Lyon is vastly superior to those three sides.

Lyon has won five of its six home games this season and it has a 100% record in its UEFA Europa League section.

Levante deserves to be shorter than around 11-8 to take out its UEFA Europa League Group L home match versus Twente having won five games in a row in front of its fans and stringing together eight home matches without a loss.

Twente is top of the Dutch Eredivise ladder nine rounds into the term but its away form against quality European teams is relatively poor and includes a recent 1-3 loss at Bursaspor in Turkey and a recent 2-2 draw at Helsingborg in Sweden.

The other UEFA Europa League home sides that almost made the list are Rosenborg, Sparta Praha and Steaua Bucaresti, while the most interestingly priced away teams are Marseille, Tottenham and Udinese, although it is hard to win on the road in either major European club football competition.

So poorly is Borussia Monchengladbach playing that it may be worth chancing Marseille at around 9-4. The German side has won just one of its last nine meaningful games, while the French team is level on points with Paris Saint-Germain at the top of the Ligue 1 ladder. Tottenham is a safer bet at around 8-11 to defeat Maribor in Slovenia, while Udinese should be favourites over Young Boys in Switzerland.

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24/10/2012     © Frixo 2024