Tough week to tip on both major golf tours

Golf form analysts have little with which to work this week because neither the BMW Masters nor the CIMB Classic has a long history and, therefore, course form is minimal.

The BMW Masters is a new stop on the European Tour but it is in its second year having debuted in 2011 as a small-field tournament featuring 30 top golfers from the European Tour and the Asian Tour, with world number one Rory McIlroy shooting rounds of 64, 69, 65 and 72 for an 18-under-par total before defeating Anthony Kim in a play-off.

McIlroy is the unsurprising 5-1 BMW Masters favourite and he will have his followers as he tries to strengthen his hold on top spot in the Race to Dubai standings. But one of his Ryder Cup-winning colleagues appeals more at the odds.

Ian Poulter, who top scored for Europe with four points from four matches at the Medinah Country Club last month, has had a nice break since his Ryder Cup heroics and he was sixth in last year`s event at the Lake Malaren Golf Club in Shanghai.

Poulter is around 28-1 to win the BMW Masters and that price stands out given the big boost that the Ryder Cup would have given his confidence, his 11-under-par total 12 months ago and his other fine results in events staged in Asia, which include tournament victories in Singapore and Hong Kong.

Unlike many of the BMW Masters favourites, Paul Casey has seen the Lake Malaren Golf Club track before. He was joint 14th in last year`s event on the Shanghai course and, also, he warmed up for this year`s renewal by finishing the ISPS HANDA Perth International in a tie for fifth last week.

Casey is worth a little nibble at around 50-1 to win the BMW Masters but it is a difficult-to-decipher tournament in which it makes sense to keep stakes to a minimum.

The CIMB Classic, for which Tiger Woods is the favourite at around 7-2, is not a great deal easier to work out. However, there are two years of course form over which to pore and there is a clear theme linking the tournament winners.

Ben Crane and Bo Van Pelt have won the previous CIMB Classic events and both of them are ranked among the best putters on the PGA Tour. Breaking par is critical to doing well in any event staged on at The Mines Resort and Golf Club and, so, one should look for golfers who rank some course experience and rank highly on the PGA Tour this term for par breakers.

Woods matches the profile but his course form dates back to 1999 when he was a very different golfer. He could win the CIMB Classic but he can be passed over at such short odds.

Van Pelt is another good fit but he is 9-1 to win twice in as many weeks and his dreadful win-to-starts ratio suggests that is highly likely to prove beyond him. One would rather lay him than back him at single-digit odds in any contest.

The three golfers on which to focus are, in alphabetical order, Ben Crane, Jason Dufner and Jeff Overton. Crane is ranked sixth for par breakers and has placed first and joint 20th in two appearances at The Mines Resort and Golf Club. Dufner is ranked eighth for par breakers and he was tied for 10th in last year`s CIMB Classic, while he was second in the ISPS HANDA Perth International last week. And Overton is ranked 17th for par breakers and was runner-up to Van Pelt in 2011. They are around 28-1, 8-1 and 28-1 respectively.

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24/10/2012     © Frixo 2024