Team GB gold medal lines set too high

Bet on Great Britain and Northern Ireland - otherwise known as Team GB - to perform below the gold medal expectations of bookmakers and punters in the London 2012 Olympic Games that get under way, officially at least, on Friday 27 July.

Being the home team is advantageous in most sports events and this is particularly true of the Summer Olympic Games, with only one host nation - the United States of America in 1996 - not improving on its medal tally of four years prior.

Team GB won 19 gold, 13 silver and 15 bronze medals in the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games - its most gold medals since the London 1908 Olympic Games and its most medals of any colour since the same Olympiad as well. Team GB finished fourth on the medal table, behind only China, the USA and Russia.

There seems little doubt that Team GB will win more than 47 medals of any colour in the London 2012 Olympic Games, if for no other reasons than the increased size of its roster - 542 athletes in 2012 compared to 311 athletes in 2008 - and the support of passionate home crowds in familiar venues.

Most bookmakers have set Team GB`s London 2012 Olympic Games total medals line at around 63, which just happens to be the pre-Games prediction of Infostrada Sports, an international provider of comprehensive sports statistics and information services famous for its work in the Olympic arena.

What is amazing - and, therefore, interesting with regards to striking a value bet - is that the betting business does not concur with the opinion of Infostrada Sports when it comes to Team GB`s London 2012 Olympic Games gold medals.

With Lord Coe and the rest of the London 2012 Olympic Games Organising Committee completing preparations ahead of the Opening Ceremony at the Olympic Stadium, Infostrada Sports is projecting that Team GB will slide down to fifth on the medal table with 17 gold, 27 silver and 19 bronze medals.

But most bookmakers have set Team GB`s London 2012 Olympic Games gold medals line at around 23, which is 30 per cent higher than the forecast of Infostrada Sports, an objective assessment of the host nation`s hopes based on results, the importance of competitions, time elements and consistency.

Given the Infostrada Sports data and, also, the tendency of British sportspeople to underperform on home soil when the pressure is on - think of any number of Wimbledons - there appears great value in backing Team GB to win fewer than 23 gold medals. Shop around and you can get odds of 5-6.

Also of serious betting interest is another special market that selected bookmakers are trading which enables you to bet on the medal colour of which Team GB wins the most.

One particular market has gold at 7-4, silver at 6-4 and bronze at 9-4. Even though silver is the favourite, the Infostrada Sports prediction suggests that it should be considerably shorter. The 6-4 looks like decent value.

Finally, it would be a major shock if someone other than Sir Steve Redgrave lit the Olympic cauldron during Friday`s London 2012 Olympic Games Opening Ceremony, with the five-time gold medallist heads and shoulders the best candidate of the people whom media are throwing around.

There may come a time when the odds of 4-6 about Sir Steve doing the honours will look like one of the best bets not only of the London 2012 Olympic Games but also of all time.

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25/07/2012     © Frixo 2024