More Eden Park misery awaits the Wallabies

The Wallabies have not celebrated victory at Eden Park since 1986 and most bookmakers are expecting them to receive a 15-point thrashing against the All Blacks in Auckland.

Since a Nick Farr-Jones-captained Australia team defeated New Zealand 22-9 at Eden Park 26 years ago, the Wallabies have lost 13 times in a row to the All Blacks at the Auckland venue by an average of 12 points per game.

Historically, there is a case for backing Australia in receipt of 15 or more points. Only three times in those 13 losses have the Wallabies been beaten by a margin greater than that, getting the chocolates 77 per cent of the time.

And there are some pundits who are applauding the decision of Australia`s Kiwi coach, Robbie Deans, to recall another New Zealand-born man, Quade Cooper, at five-eighth after he was a notable absentee from last week`s match in Sydney, which the Wallabies lost 19-27 to the All Blacks.

The basic argument for backing Australia against the spread in New Zealand goes something like this: the Wallabies do not lose heavily to the All Blacks all that often and they cannot play much worse than they did last weekend.

That Australia cannot perform more disappointedly than it did in front of nearly 80,000 Wallabies fans in Sydney is true. However, true also is the fact that the men in green and gold were flattered to finish the ANZ Stadium game only eight points behind those in black. A result more reflective of the match would have seen the world champion fly back across the Tasman Sea having won by double that margin.

With one bookmaker asking New Zealand to give up 13 points flat, the All Blacks are worth backing to cover the spread and heap more misery on Australian rugby union supporters.

The All Blacks are likely to improve on their Sydney showing and, while Cooper`s return to the key playmaking role is a plus for the Wallabies, they have been hit by injuries to some of their forwards, including captain David Pocock.

Mark Ella, one of Australian rugby union`s all-time greats, thinks that the Wallabies will not win the Bledisloe Cup for another 10 years. That may be a touch over the top but it does provide a telling insight into the current miserable mindset of rugby union fans who bleed green and gold.

Argentina and South Africa meet for the second time in a week in The Rugby Championship`s other game this weekend, with the action switching from Cape Town to Mendoza.

Bookmakers, unsurprisingly, have installed the Pumas as the underdogs in spite of the match being played in Argentina, with the most common handicap line being nine points.

One would normally want to side with a home underdog but Argentina failed to score a try in South Africa and, if it does not cross the line at least once in front of its own supporters, those nine points are not going to help much.

The Springboks, who ran in three five-pointers at Newlands, probably deserve to be slightly warmer favourites but the difference between what the spread is and what it should be is insufficient to recommend a bet at odds-on prices.

Stick with backing the All Blacks to smash the Wallabies at Eden Park and pile the pressure on under-fire coach Deans.

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25/08/2012     © Frixo 2024