Guineas favourite to enhance her reputation

The Shadwell Fillies` Mile is the feature race on the second day of the Cambridgeshire Meeting and it has attracted seven exciting youngsters, including ante-post English 1,000 Guineas favourite Certify from the Godolphin operation.

Certify is unbeaten in three starts, as is Ollie Olga from the Mick Channon yard, and they are the two juveniles on which to concentrate, with the other five declared runners expected to trade at double-figure odds and deservedly so.

The racing world expected Certify and Ollie Olga to meet in the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster a fortnight ago but the latter went into season 24 hours before the race and former professional football Channon had no choice but to withdraw his filly from the Group Two contest. Certify went on to win the mile race that developed into a three-furlong sprint.

Both Certify and Ollie Olga have beaten Sky Lantern and the Richard Hannon-trained youngster has since go on to win the Moyglare Stud Stakes, a Group One race in Ireland, by two and a half lengths. So there does not seem to look past the top two in the Shadwell Fillies` Mile, although there is one piece of form that gives Roz a chance of causing an upset.

So it comes down to a choice between Certify and Ollie Olga. The former defeated Sky Lantern by one length over seven furlongs on a good-to-firm ground and the latter beat Sky Lantern by half a length over the same trip on good-to-soft going. Read the race comments and watch back the two races and one draws the conclusion that Certify put in the better performance in overcoming the subsequent Group One winner.

Therefore, Certify gets the nod. The two-year-old daughter of Elusive Quality has proven that she can win over a mile and her victory over Sky Lantern rates better than the one that Ollie Olga registered, albeit not by a huge margin.

Harry Dunlop is excited about Roz, in particular because his Teofilo filly beat Purr Along by more than two lengths more than Certify did. Unfortunately, several other form lines suggest that both Certify and Ollie Olga are quite a bit better than Roz. Do not get sucked in to supporting her at what some punters may think is an overly generous price.

There are two other Group-class contests on the Newmarket card, the Group Two Nayef Joel Stakes over a mile and the Group Three Sakhee Oh So Sharp Stakes over seven furlongs.

The Nayef Joel Stakes is a fiendishly hard race to decipher, with five of the leading chances - Joviality, Most Improved, Penitent, Premio Loco and Trumpet Major - having finished last in one of their last three runs. Most Improved is a Group One winner - he won the St James`s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot three months ago - but he is very inconsistent and so are many of his opponents. It is a no-bet event.

The Sakhee Oh So Sharp Stakes is a easier race in which to bet and the most experienced if the nine runners, Califante, shapes as the one to beat. She was two lengths too good for Annie`s Fortune when they met for the first time two months ago and, although she has not won since, Hannon`s filly has performed admirably in three events of decent quality.

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27/09/2012     © Frixo 2024