Kukushkin the pick of six interesting US Open outsiders

There are half a dozen US Open men`s singles and women`s singles outsiders worth backing in the first round at Flushing Meadows and none is better than Mikhail Kukushkin.

The Kazakh leads US Open men`s singles opponent Jarkko Nieminen 2-0 lifetime, including a 2011 victory on a Miami hardcourt, yet he is available at odds of around 5-4.

Neither Kukushkin nor Nieminen arrives in New York with the best of recent records but the Kazakh`s 3-6 6-3 6-2 win in Miami 17 months ago, plus his straight-sets defeat of the Finn on a Barcelona clay court four years, are sufficient to warrant a wager. Kukushkin should be the match favourite.

Radek Stepanek is similarly priced to beat Nicolas Almagro in another US Open men`s singles first round tie that will not attract a huge amount of media and public attention.

Stepanek has won both of his previous matches versus Almagro and has a better chance of eliminating the 11th seed than bookmakers would have you believe. The Czech, who defeated the Spaniard 7-6 6-4 on a Paris hard court in 2010, should be a few rolls shorter than the 5-4 that is available.

Tommy Robredo is interesting at around 2-1 for his US Open men`s singles match against Andreas Seppi. The players have not met since 2008 so their head-to-head data is on the old side but they are tied at 2-2 on all surfaces, with the Spaniard leading the Italian 2-1 on hard courts.

Robredo has not played many matches this year but, if can reproduce anything approaching his best form, those odds of 2-1 about him reaching the second round will be big.

Finally in the US Open men`s singles first round, Carlos Berlocq is overpriced at around 7-2 to bounce out Bernard Tomic, who has not kicked on since making the fourth round of the Australian Open at the beginning of the season.

Berlocq and Tomic have met only once before and it was on clay but it was in a Grand Slam event - the Spaniard beat the Australian 7-5 6-4 6-2 in last year`s French Open - and the odds that bookmakers are quoting are hard to pass over.

Virginie Razzano and Chanelle Scheepers are the outsiders in the US Open women`s singles first round who are over the odds and merit support based on head-to-head statistics.

Razzano faces Jie Zheng in New York. The Frenchwoman and the Chinese have met only once previously but it was on a Miami hard court and Razzano ran out the easy 6-4 6-2 winner.

Bookmakers are offering odds of around 5-2 about Razzano knocking out the 28th seed. They seem somewhat generous.

Scheepers is up against another seed, 14th-ranked Maria Kirilenko, and bookmakers have been dismissive of the South African, quoting her at around 4-1 to reach the next phase.

Those odds are too big when one considers that Scheepers and Kirilenko are tied at 2-2 on all surfaces, with the South African 2-1 ahead on hard courts and both of her wins on hard courts coming since the start of the 2011 season.

Scheepers does not deserve to be the favourite against a player who is 28 places above her in the world rankings but she does deserve to be much, much shorter than 4-1.

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28/08/2012     © Frixo 2024