League Cup Outrights

As a number of the Premier League teams enter the Capital One League Cup in the second round it is time to look at where the value lies in the outright markets.

Man City are the 6/1 (general) favourites to win the League Cup this season a trophy they have not won since 1976. The Premier League champions are worth taking on at the head of the market as this trophy is likely to be low down their list of priorities. In fact it is probably worth swerving all the Champions League entrants as Chelsea at 9/1 (boylesports/paddy Power/You Win), Man Utd (9/1-general) and Arsenal 10/1 (Coral) will have bigger fish to fry. Of the four Arsenal are expected take it the most serious as they use the competition in the development of their youngsters. While this policy has helped showcase many exciting new players at the club it has never resulted in an Arsenal victory.

It is best to look outside the Champions League teams for some value in this market and of those teams Liverpool are the most fancied at 9/1 (general). The defending champions are undergoing a rebuilding job under Rodgers and will know that the cups will represent their best chance of a trophy this season. 9/1 though seems a little short when their Merseyside rivals Everton are 16/1 (paddy Power) and for me a better team. The Toffees have started the season well winning their first two league games. David Moyes will know that this trophy represents their best chance of success this season and will be desperate to bring the first piece of silverware to Goodison since the 1995 FA Cup win. The Toffees have a very winnable second round clash at home to Leyton Orient.

In addition to Everton we will tip up Sunderland EW at 22/1 (BetVictor). The Black Cats are another club, who after strong recent investment, who seem unlikely to struggle this season. Martin O’Neill won this trophy twice as boss of Leicester and is one of the few managers you can guarantee will take the tournament seriously. A home encounter with Morecambe is not the most testing of opening encounters and with the right draw they could go all the way to the final.

I also like the chances of Wigan and Fulham however both sides face difficult second round games away to Championship sides (with Fulham at Sheffield Wednesday and Wigan at Nottingham Forest). It makes sense to hold bets on these two until we see if they are into the hat for the third round.

In terms of the opening games I would be loathe to back teams at a short price with the risk of many of the big sides rotating a number of key players. My betting strategy instead would be to look to find a few teams capable of pulling off the shock at a bigger price. I like the look of League One side Stevenage at home to Southampton. The Saints have a very tricky game with Man Utd this weekend so the risk of rotation might loom large. Their opponents Stevenage are available at 5/2 (ladbrokes) and this is a generous price on a side who reached the fifth round of the FA Cup last season causing a few shocks on the way.

I also like the chances of Bradford to get something out of Watford at Vicarage Road. The Bantams have started the season well with two wins from three games and netted five at the weekend. Watford have also started well under Zola but the price of 6/1 Bradford (william hill) is too generous to avoid.

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28/08/2012     © Frixo 2024