US Open Mens Preview

Novak Djokovic is the 13/8 (pinnacle) favourite to land the final grand slam of the Tennis year (the US Open). The Serbian has won the last three grand slams held on the hardcourt (including this event last year) and with a kind draw is the deserved favourite. Excuse the small rant, but the fact that the second seed does not automatically play the third seed in the semi-final now means that Djokovic takes on David Ferrer rather than Andy Murray. It is a huge difference of opponent and the Serbian will be delighted. Ahead of the last four Djokovic likely must see off Juan Marin Del Potro. Del Potro defeated him in the Olympics for the Bronze medal and that is no easy win for Djokovic. The Argentinian won here in 2009 and if somewhere near his full fitness is a dangerous last eight opponent. If the Serbian can get past Del Potro either David Ferrer, Janko Tipsarevic or John Isner will likely await him in the last four.

Roger Federer is the 11/4 (boylesports) second favourite after his victory in the Wimbledon final. The Swiss ace dismantled Djokovic at Cincinnati recently (on hardcourt) and I see no reason why he can not go well here. He should coast into the quarters before a game with either Berdych or Almagro awaits, neither of whom should derail the Fed Express (customary joke included). In the last four he will face Andy Murray who is the headline selection. The Scot has the superior hard court head to head record against Federer (nine to eight) and looked unstoppable when playing the Swiss ace at the Olympics. The Scot has had a few injury niggles since grabbing the Gold. That though that is just the Murray way as he has long learned to sacrifice smaller tournaments to be at his peak come the big events. He is 21/5 (pinnacle) to land the tournament and that seems the value. If he can see off Federer and the game does not go on too long (the semi-finals and the final both take place on consecutive days) then he could even see off Djokovic. The Serbian has not had the best of times in recent matches against the big four (losing his last four matches). Although Murray and Federer are set to play each other in the semi-final I would rather be on one of these two as they are in much better form than the Serbian.

Outside of the top three bookmakers are fairly dismissive of the others. Juan Martin Del Potro is 16/1 (sportingbet) fourth favourite. We talked earlier about the threat of the Argentinian though a hand injury seems to have been troubling him a little in recent tournaments and as such we will keep an eye him and the injury over the first week. Jo Wilfried Tsonga is 50/1 (boylesports) though a last eight appearance in 2011 is the extent of all he has done here. David Ferrer is 66/1 (general) and the fourth seed is worth swerving as has not really been at his best at Flushing Meadows and looks a vulnerable seed.

I like the look of John Isner at 100/30 (BetVictor) to win the third quarter and the 80/1 (EW) with sportingbet. The big serving American was the winner of the recent Winston-Salem Open and reached the last eight here last year. If he can cut down on the unforced errors then he could be a real player this week and in the wide open Nadal less section looks worth some interest.

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28/08/2012     © Frixo 2024