Ugly Swans beautiful Grand Final bets

Bookmakers are underrating the Australian Football League Grand Final chance of Sydney and, with heavy rain and hail forecast for Melbourne on Saturday, back the Swans in receipt of a decent handicap start against Hawthorn.

The Hawks are the two-and-a-half-goal favourites because the consensus is that they are the best overall team in the AFL, a viewpoint with which it is hard to disagree vehemently since they won the minor premiership with 17 victories from their 22 matches and a competition-leading percentage.

But Sydney inflicted one of Hawthorn`s five defeats and it came close to doing the double, leading 95-90 with four and a half minutes on the clock before Shaun Burgoyne and Brad Sewell kicked late, late goals for the Melbourne side.

The Swans match up well against the Hawks, which goes a long way to explaining how they managed to win by 37 points at York Park in Launceston in Round Five, a game in which Hawthorn forward Lance Franklin drew a rare goal blank.

Only Sydney has managed to prevent Franklin booting at least one goal this season and that, more than anything else, demonstrates how well John Longmire`s team lines up versus Alistair Clarkson`s side. Swans defender Ted Richards has a habit of keeping the tall timber known as Buddy quiet and restricting Franklin`s output is key to beating the Hawks.

Franklin has kicked only 38 goals in his 14 matches against the Swans and he has been on the losing team in eight of those games. Those are ordinary numbers compared to those that Buddy boasts in clashes with most other AFL sides.

Then there is the weather forecast. Australia`s Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting scattered showers with possible hail and thunder and a top temperature of only 14 degrees Celsius. Cold, wet and windy conditions would enhance the prospects of Sydney spoiling Hawthorn`s day. The Swans are the best team in the AFL at getting down and dirty.

A handicap line of between six and 10 points would have been fair so snap up the 15 or so points that some bookmakers are giving to Sydney. The Swans will give everyone who backs them a run of their money. It is the ethos of the club.

The most AFL Grand Final exotic betting market is the Norm Smith Medal, which goes to the player rated as the best on ground. If one thinks that Sydney will win then Josh Kennedy is worth supporting even though he is one of the favourites. Kennedy, who played 13 games for Hawthorn before joining the Swans, earned five Brownlow Medal votes in the two matches between the premiership rivals in Rounds Five and 22.

It is important to analyse the match before thinking about whom to back in the Norm Smith Medal market. Only four players on losing AFL Grand Final sides have been named as the man of the match since the prize was handed out for the first time in 1979. The players who defied the trend were Maurice Rioli in 1982, Gary Ablett in 1989, Nathan Buckley in 2002 and Chris Judd in 2005. It would be fair to say that all four men are legends of the game. Basically, do not back Hawks players if you fancy the Swans to win and vice versa.

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28/09/2012     © Frixo 2024