Villa value to win a card-packed local derby

Aston Villa and West Bromwich may not be the highest profile English Premier League but the Birmingham battle has more than enough bad blood to warrant a bet on Anthony Taylor brandishing more cards than the bookmakers are expecting.

Since Taylor became a member of the English Premier League`s Select Group Referees ahead of the 2010-2011 season he has controlled 71 matches, showing 234 yellow cards and 21 red cards so his average is a little bit below the 4.5 cards line that bookmakers have set for the Villa Park game.

But Taylor`s numbers go up when one only considers either local derbies or matches in which there is a rivalry that goes behind geography. For example, he brandished seven yellow cards and three red cards in the first game that he refereed last season, an English Championship match between Leeds and Middlesbrough at Elland Road. Two weeks later, he showed six yellow cards in the game between Milton Keynes and Stevenage, teams separated by fewer than 30 miles.

Because the Baggies spent more than a decade out of the English top flight they did not play the Villains, their nearest neighbours, in league competition for years, during which time their rivalry with Wolves grew and grew. But, historically, West Bromwich versus Aston Villa has been a bigger match than West Bromwich versus Wolverhampton.

Sunday`s game has the potential to blow up, not least since Villains boss Paul Lambert will be cajoling his players from the sideline like only he knows how. Lambert got involved in a touchline argument with Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini on Wednesday night and derbies in which he is one of the bosses have a history of featuring lots of cards.

During Lambert`s spell in charge of Norwich, the Canaries played their deadliest rivals, the Tractor Boys of Ipswich, twice. The first game saw six players cautioned and one sent off, while the second match featured three yellow card, all this in spite of Norwich winning both derbies comfortably.

With Aston Villa and the Baggies combining for an average of just under four cards per English Premier League game this season, there does not appear to be much upside in backing the under. The over represents decent value at around 5-6.

Because West Bromwich struggles to keep English Premier League clean sheets away from The Hawthorns - the Baggies have stopped the home side only once in their last 19 top-flight games - and the Villains will be flying high following their English Capital One Cup win at Manchester City, there is something to be said for backing Lambert`s team to win the Second City grudge match at around 6-4.

Peter Odemwingie is suspended for West Bromwich as a result of his inexcusable red card versus Fulham two weeks ago. He was the English Premier League top scorer for the Baggies last season so it is fair to say that they will lose some of their attacking menace with him sitting in the stands.

Odemwingie`s ban, West Bromwich`s propensity to give away goals on its travels and Aston Villa`s midweek performance means that the home side is a few rolls over the odds.

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28/09/2012     © Frixo 2024