Wimbledon Mens Outright 30th June

Wimbledon

Tennis
Published: 29/06/2014

The welcome feature of a Sunday rest day at Wimbledon in between the first and second week gives us a chance to assess the markets and see where the value lies.

Novak Djokovic is the 7/4 favourite with bet365 for the title after booking his place in the last 16 with a straight sets victory over Gilles Simon. A straight sets victory over the Frenchman was a needed boost for the Serbian after he was pushed in a tense four setter with Radek Stepanek in the previous round. His opponent in the last 16 is Jo-Wilfried Tsogna before a quarter-final with either Marin Cilic or Jeremy Chardy awaits. I think Djokovic should come through against Tsonga but Cilic was impressive in a straight sets victory over Tomas Berdych and looks a dangerous last eight opponent. The Serbian is the deserved favourite but at those prices and with a tricky draw I would avoid getting involved now.

Andy Murray is the second favourite and most likely semi-final opponent for Djokovic and he can be backed at 13/5 to win Wimbledon. The defending champion has not dropped a set in his three matches so far and looks impressive. He should have few problems with Kevin Anderson in the last 16 but a potential quarter-final with Grigor Dimitrov looks dangerous. The Bulgarian is the 12/1 fifth favourite for the tournament and has to be respected after winning at Queens this year. Dimitrov was excellent in his first two matches though struggled in the third round where he needed five sets to defeat Alexandr Dolgopolov. Dimitrov will be up against Leonardo Mayer in the last 16.

The bottom half of the draw is where the real betting potential lies as this section is headed by second seed Rafa Nadal. The Spaniard has limped his way through his first three matches winning each of his matches in four sets. These weak performances have seen his price slip out to 4/1 with bet365 and I think this now looks value. The Spaniard will benefit as the courts change in the second week after the wear and tear of the opening days. In addition Nadal has a winnable last 16 games against wildcard Nick Grygios. The Australian has shown huge promise so far but 14 sets from his three games and a lack of big game experience will count against him. Nadal will then face one of Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori or Simone Bolelli in the quarter-finals, all of whom the Spaniard will not be scared to face.

The biggest danger to Nadal in the bottom section of the draw is his old nemesis Roger Federer who has been strong in the first week and might be popular at 5/1. The Swiss ace has yet to drop a set so far and faces Tommy Robredo in the last 16. The Spaniard has not gone further than this point before at Wimbledon and Federer should be able to slip past him into the last eight. His likely quarter-final opponent looks unclear with that section of the draw being the one where a number of third round games are still to be completed. Fellow Swiss player Stanislas Wawrinka is the highest seed but he still has to get past Denis Istomin before facing the winner of John Isner and Feliciano Lopez all of whom are dangerous.

Nadal though has an excellent record against Federer in recent meetings and especially in big games where you have to go back to 2007 for the last time Roger came out on top at a Grand Slam battle. Take Nadal then at 4/1 each-way to book his place in his third Wimbledon final.

RECOMMENDATION: Rafa Nadal to win Wimbledon, 4/1 (bet365) ½, 1,2

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Any odds displayed within this article were correct at the time of publishing (29/06/2014) but are subject to change.

29/06/2014     © Frixo 2024

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