Dolgopolov to beat Baghdatis in a long, hard slog

Back Alexandr Dolgopolov to emerge triumphant from a war of attrition against Marcos Baghdatis when the Ukrainian and the Cypriot meet in the US Open men`s singles second round.

Both Dolgopolov and Baghdatis went the full distance in the US Open men`s singles first round and, judging by their five previous clashes, the most likely outcome looks like a win for the Ukrainian in four or five hard-fought sets.

All five matches between Dolgopolov and Baghdatis have taken place on hard courts, with their first encounter resulting in a 7-6 6-4 win for the Cypriot in Tashkent three years ago. Since then the Ukrainian has won three out of four, including the last two, although all their meetings have been close with tiebreaks featuring regularly in them.

As the higher ranked player with more potential improvement within him, Dolgopolov deserves match favouritism. But the head-to-head statistics, coupled with the expectation that Baghdatis will give the proverbial 110 per cent on the big stage, makes backing the Ukrainian to win either 3-1 or 3-2 attractive at much better odds than he is simply to prevail.

Staying in the US Open men`s singles second round, there is very little to choose between Fabio Fognini and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the world rankings - the Italian is 59th and the Spaniard is 68th - but their head-to-head data throws up an interesting result that points to a Flushing Meadows bet.

Fognini and Garcia-Lopez are tied at two wins apiece but they met on a fast surface two years ago and the Spaniard smashed the Italian 6-2 6-2. The New York hard courts are not as quick as the Eastbourne grass courts but still they ought to favour Garcia-Lopez`s game over that of Fognini.

Neither Flavio Cipolla nor Tim Smyczek made it on to the order of play for Wednesday 29 August 2012 but they remain good bets for their US Open men`s singles second round ties versus Jack Sock and Kei Nishikori respectively. Cipolla is around 8-13 to beat Sock and Smyczek is around 4-1 to beat Nishikori in what could be one of the biggest upsets yet.

Crossing over to the US Open women`s singles second round, there is a case for backing Venus Williams to knock out the number six seed, Angelique Kerber, at what will be decent odds. The women have met three times previously, with the seven-time Grand Slam singles champion bossing their only encounter on a hard court, winning 6-3 6-3 in Melbourne.

Admittedly that was three years ago and Kerber had improved considerably since then, whereas Williams has experienced more downs than ups. But this is the US Open about which we are talking and players such as Williams tend to rise to the occasion when they line up in front of their home fans.

Most of US Open women`s singles second round matches likely to take place on Thursday 30 August 2012 feature favourites who are hard to oppose based on current and historical form, with many long odds-on shots difficult to look past.

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29/08/2012     © Frixo 2024