July Festival Betting Preview

With the ground for Newmarket`s July Festival getting softer and softer, Harris Tweed is the one to support in the first day`s top race, the Princess of Wales`s Goldsmiths Stakes.

A Group Two contest for three-year-olds and up over a mile and a half, the Princess of Wales`s Goldsmiths Stakes has attracted a small field of nine runners led by, according to bookmakers, last year`s Melbourne Cup runner-up Red Cadeaux.

It is pretty easy to see why Red Cadeaux heads the Princess of Wales`s Goldsmiths Stakes betting market. Ed Dunlop`s six-year-old gelding is a model of consistency, a tough and reliable runner who has won or been placed in his each of his last seven starts, four of them at Group One level.

Red Cadeaux will run his usual, honest race but usually he finds at least one too good for him. The son of Cadeaux Genereux has won only four of his 22 career races and just once on his last nine racecourse appearances. Also, his best form is on better ground than Newmarket is likely to supply.

Harris Tweed is the Princess of Wales`s Goldsmiths Stakes second favourite and worth backing against Red Cadeaux and the other seven runners. The William Haggas-trained gelding is three pounds better off with the market leader following their clash at York two months ago in which two and three quarter lengths separated them at the finishing post.

Winner of five of his 13 career races, Harris Tweed would have an excellent chance of reversing the form against Red Cadeaux on any ground and his chances will only increase if, as forecast, the Newmarket surface stays on the soft side.

Take Harris Tweed to improve his strike rate to better than 40 per cent by fending off Red Cadeaux. Jakkalberry is an interesting runner but Marco Botti`s entire probably requires sound ground to produce his best form.

There are a couple of other Group races on the Newmarket card, as well as a quality handicap with 14 runners.

Shantaram is likely to jump as the Bahrain Trophy favourite but there are legitimate concerns that he will not handle the forecast soft ground so preference is for Valiant,

Undefeated in his two starts, both over 10 furlongs on good-to-soft going, Valiant is open to considerable improvement as he steps up to a mile and five.

Gale Force Ten merits favouritism for the July Stakes. His trainer, Aidan O`Brien, has had just one runner in the race since the turn of the millennium and that runner was Ivan Denisovich, winner of the 2005 edition. Gale Force Ten was unlucky not to win the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, beating home every horse on the far side but finding Reckless Abandon just too good in other group.

The Goldsmiths Handicap is a hot little race sandwiched between the Group contests. Bookmakers have chalked up Nabucco as the favourite and John Gosden`s three-year-old colt has obvious potential going into handicaps off the back of his maiden win over 10 furlongs at Windsor last month.

But the better bet is Hajras, winner of his first two races before placing a two-length second in a Newbury handicap, the form of which is working out extremely well indeed.

The yard of Mark Johnston has not been great form of late but the trainer did have a winner at Wolverhampton on Tuesday so there are signs that he is turning the corner.

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13/07/2012     © Frixo 2024