Political Betting

The concept of winning and losing elections is given new meaning by the activity known as “political betting.” Now it is possible to turn political knowledge into predictions that earn cash, simply by placing a wager at the local betting shop or online. It is no different at all from having a stake in the outcome of the Grand National, the Monte Carlo Grand Prix, or the Tour de France. For just like horses, drivers, and cyclists, politicians participate in races, which involve uncertainty and risk and can therefore be subject to forecasts, odds making, and handicapping.

The most common form of political betting is ante post wagering. From a field of potential candidates, the bettor chooses who will eventually triumph. Again, this is much the same as picking the winner of the FA Cup. Markets become available just as soon as the date of elections is known, with odds shifting daily as news breaks and the polling date draws near.

The biggest market for wagering on politics is the U.S. Presidential election, which takes place every four years, rather like the World Cup or the Olympics. The election is always held on a fixed date, the first Tuesday in November, and betting follows a clear cycle of events.

For example, early in 2007, considerable interest was shown all over the world in the run-up to the voting for the next U.S. President. President George W. Bush was term-limited from seeking reelection and the field was wide open for hopefuls from both major parties, Republicans and Democrats. Four markets were of special interest to bettors: the Democratic nominee for president, the Republican nominee for president, the next elected President, and the party that would control the Presidency.

A series of primary elections were conducted, leading up to the National Conventions that would choose the candidates, and betting markets were available who would emerge to represent each party. At one point, Hillary Clinton held the lead on the Democrats side as a 2-to-1 favourite for her party’s nomination. Barack Obama trailed at 5-to-1 odds, and was a long-shot to become President at 14-to-1. As everyone now knows, that was a huge opportunity.

For the 2012 cycle, Obama will surely be running again, and oddsmakers originally had him the favourite at 1-to-2 prior to the 2010 Congressional elections, when his party lost many seats. Twenty-four months out, the odds on Obama fell to even money. On the Republican side, Mitt Romney was sitting at 8-to-1 and Sarah Palin was holding at 14-to-1. The ratios can easily change with every new economic statistic, policy speech, or scandalous rumour.

But political betting encompasses much more than who will be the American leader years hence. Long before Conservative leader David Cameron formed the new government in the spring of 2010, punters were already wagering heavily on the election, and it did not even matter to many of them who won. Since 2005, they had been putting their money on when Prime Minister Gordon Brown would call for the General election. The majority of the interest was on the completion of his five-year term, with longer odds offered on elections as early as 2007.

There are a variety of opportunities to bet not only on potential heads of state across Europe, but also on local elections and legislation. Just consider the Politics section offered by one of Ireland’s leading bookmakers, PaddyPower. Bets can be placed on the year of the next U.K. General election, the next Prime Minister after Cameron, the next politician to leave the coalition government, the next Foreign Secretary, the next mayor of Dublin, the number of female TDs in the Irish government after the next General election, and much more.

In short, for those who take a strong interest in politics there are markets galore. All it takes is a little sleuthing to find the bookmakers with the most attractive odds.