Chelsea Preview

After a heroic performance in the Premier League at Liverpool on Sunday, Chelsea return their attention to European competition, with the Blues once again one game away from a Champions League final. If Chelsea have been somewhat criticised for their style of play, the results which they have picked up recently will render this criticism irrelevant in their eyes, and the Blues have already secured a creditable 0-0 draw in Madrid in this tie.

The first-leg of this tie was very much a case of two sides with a similar approach to the game cancelling one another out. Atletico are known as a counter-attacking side, and they have this in common with their Premier League opponents, who are far happier sitting deep and playing on the break than they are taking the game to an opponent.

Thus, the first meeting between these two teams was pretty much a total stalemate. Chelsea were perfectly happy to sit with nine men behind the ball for most of the game in Madrid, and though there is something of an onus on them to attack in this match, it’s fair to say that they won’t suddenly morph into Brazil. We can certainly expect to see a very similar cautious approach from Chelsea in this game; after all, it has served them extremely well on many occasions both this season and in past campaigns.

Atletico are also not particularly equipped to play an aggressive game, and there is less pressure on them to do so at Stamford Bridge. Atleti have ground out some narrow wins in recent weeks as they close on a potentially incredible double, and have actually kept six consecutive clean sheets. Chelsea have also shown that they can defend with great discipline of late, and it’s hardly hugely surprising that this is a meeting between the two teams with the best defensive records in Spain and England.

So this may not be a game for the purist. In fact, I think we can safely rule that prospect out. This would be a tense occasion under any circumstances, but with Chelsea knowing that one goal conceded could be absolutely vital, and having observed their performances of late, it’s hard to see this being anything other than a pretty turgid match.

Of course, the importance and precarious balance of the occasion will imbue it with a tension that will make the fixture watchable, even if goals and even chances are likely to be at a premium. But the way that the match will likely unfold makes predicting the outcome somewhat easier.

So for this fixture, I think it is pretty much unimaginable that there will be more than 2 goals. Atletico will likely try to see off the early period of the game and quieten the crowd, while Chelsea simply must not concede. Thus, the under 2.5 goals bet looks a shoo-in to me. In terms of a higher odds bet, I can see Chelsea coming out on top here. They are experts at grinding out narrow victories in the tensest fixtures, while this is untrodden territory for the away side. A good higher odds bet would be for the Blues to win with by the odd goal.

Safe Bet – Under 2.5 Goals
Value Bet – Chelsea 1 – 0 Atletico Madrid

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28/04/2014     © Frixo 2026