Can Dawn Approach go the distance

Although not the biggest in terms of financial rewards the Epsom Derby is still considered the biggest flat race in terms of prestige and this Saturday sees 12 runners (seven of whom are Irish trained) bidding for glory.

Dawn Approach (at time of writing) was the 5/4 (sportingbet/BET VICTOR) market favourite. The Jim Bolger trained runner is an impressive horse who has showcased real talent in seven career starts that has seven straight victories including success in the 2,000 Guineas last time out. The question mark is whether Dawn Approach can go the distance with none of those seven wins coming over a mile and the Epsom Derby being over 1m 4f. In addition the 2,000 Guineas looks a weak race if you look at the subsequent form of the other horses. Battle of Marengo is the 11/2 (STAN JAMES) second favourite for the race and is one of five Aiden O’Brien runners in the field. This son of Galileo is five from six career runs with that career defeat coming on debut. The last two wins have come over 1m 2f at Leopardstown and the horse looks like it should have no problems with the distance of this race. The horse seemed to lack something when winning last time out though.

Ocovango is 8/1 (STAN JAMES/CORAL) chance and looks to be a contender at a value price. The Andre Fabre trained runner already has a victory over 1m 3f and should have no problem with the distance. The trainer won this race in 2011 with Pour Moi and he could have another real player here. Fabre thinks this Colt has all the makings of a Derby winner and who are we to argue with him. Ruler of the World is also an 8/1 (GENERAL) chance and is the second of the O’Brien crew with Ryan Moore on board. The Horse is a stayer rather than a sprinter and though it has the ability to go the distance (shown when winning at Chester) I can not bring myself to get excited about it.

Chopin (insert your own jokes about hitting the right notes) is an 11/1 (sportingbet) chance and the German runner (son of Santiago) comes from a smart yard.

Mars is a 14/1 (GENERAL) shot and the O’Brien third string has a lot of work to do to make up ground on Dawn Approach who finished comfortably ahead of it in the 2,000 Guineas.

Libertarian is a 16/1 (GENERAL) chance and showed when winning the Dante a real battling spirit. One who could go well to get a place though could lack the class to win this.

The each-way value then might lie in Galileo Rock who is a certain stayer and who finished ahead of Libertarian last time out at Sandown and is available at a much bigger price (40/1-bet365/BETVICTOR/STAN JAMES).

Finally a quick word about the big Racing from Chantilly on Sunday where the Prix Du Jockey Club takes place. The market is naturally headed by Intello (5/2-bet365) who is probably the strongest three-year-old Colt in France right now. That being said with so many runners in the field anything can happen. My advice then is to side look for the value and it could lie with the Jim Bolger runner Loch Garman who was 10/1 (bet365) at time of writing. The horse has already won a Group 1 in France and looked lively when chasing home Battle of Marengo at Leopardstown.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Ocovango EW in the Epson Derby, 8/1 (STAN JAMES/CORAL)
SILVER: Galileo Rock EW in the Epsom Derby, 40/1 (bet365/BET VICTOR/STAN JAMES)
BRONZE: Loch Garman EW in the Prix du Jockey Club, 10/1 (bet365)

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01/06/2013     © Frixo 2026