Australia value to edge the Second Test

Without getting too Philosophical here it can be a fine line between success and failure in Sport and this was shown last week when a late slip on a kick was the difference between a First Test defeat for the Lions and a First Test victory. Can the Lions wrap up the series in game two or will Australia fight back?

Bookmakers make the Lions the 8/11 (paddy Power/william hill) favourites for the game at the Etihad Stadium (no not that one) after their victory in the opening game. To do this they must play much better than on their only previous visit to Melbourne where they were hammered 35-14 in 2001. This venue has been kind to the Wallabies who have won ten of their twelve here. Australia can take confidence from the fact that they could and should have won the last test as they came undone by a combinaton of badluck and errors in their kicking. Luck is something you can not account for though Australia have moved to change their kicker.. Of the two sides I think there is little to choose so Australia 13/8 (betfred) represent the value.

Everything does point again to another close battle this time around with bookmakers setting the handicap at either three or four points. Having sided with Australia to win then I think it also makes sense to side with them at 11/2 (ladbrokes) in the win margin market. The last game was settled by just two points and this one again could go down to the wire. If you think the Lions can win by a similar margin then they can be backed to do so at 9/2 (GENERAL).

The first tryscorer market is headed by GEORGE NORTH (sportingbet/SPREADEX) and Israel Folau (SKYBET) both of whom are 11/1. North was in excellent form in the opener grabbing a try and can cause damage once more and is 9/4 (SPREADEX) to score at anytime. So too is Folau who grabbed two tries last time out and is 9/4 (SKYBET). Both players look excellent value as they looked unplayable at times in the opening test.

Will Genia was the creator in chief for the Australian tries in the last game and he could be worth a small interest in the man of the match market.. The absence of enforcer Paul O’Connell might leave the Lions more exposed and 8/1 (william hill) looks a decent price. Genia is one of three players alongside Jonathan Sexton (william hill) and Lee Halfpenny (GENERAL) who can be backed at 8/1 in this market.

Victory here for Australia would make the game go down to a deciding game three and those who think Australia can come back and win the series can back them at 9/2 (SKYBET) to do so. The Lions are 1/4 (SPREADEX) to win the series by any scoreline or those looking to specify can get 2-1 at 6/4 (boylesports/SPORTING BET) or 3-0 at 13/8 (SPREADEX).

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Australia to win the game, 13/8 (betfred)
SILVER: Australia to win by 1-5 points, 11/2 (ladbrokes)
BRONZE: George North to score a try at anytime, 9/4 (SPREADEX), Israel Folau to score a try at anytime, 9/4 (SKYBET).

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01/07/2013     © Frixo 2024