Madrid Mens Preview

This year’s clay court swing really begins in earnest over the next week, as the top players on both the ATP and WTA Tours arrive in Madrid for one of the major warm-up tournaments for the French Open. Unlike other major clay court tournaments, the Madrid Masters has not been as dominated by Rafael Nadal as one perhaps might expect, but the Spaniard has nevertheless picked up the title three times. The Madrid Masters was also the scene of one of Roger Federer’s rare victories over Nadal on clay, back in 2009, and Federer also has three titles in Madrid to his name.

Both Federer and Nadal will be among the contenders for this year’s title, along with the other obvious favourite Novak Djokovic, and the recent winner of the Monte Carlo Masters, Stanislas Wawrinka, will also have high hopes of emerging victorious.

There is a statistic about Wawrinka’s recent victory in Monte Carlo which underlines how unlikely an outsider is to win this title. Wawrinka was only the third winner in the last 37 Masters events outside the `Big Four` of Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Andy Murray, the others being Robin Soderling (2010) and David Ferrer (2012) in Paris.

So let’s deal firstly with the few dangerous floaters in the draw for this year’s Madrid Masters. Andy Murray is not currently ranked in the top four players in the world, due to a combination of injury and mediocre form. Clay is not his best surface, so it’s hard to see the British player launching a title winning comeback here, although he has triumphed here previously.

David Ferrer is an extremely consistent performer, and recently beat Nadal on clay to win his first Masters series title, but generally lacks the power to beat the top players on a regular basis. And Jo-Wilfried Tsonga pushed Federer in Monte Carlo and can be a dangerous player on clay, but his best days look to be behind him.

It’s hard to look beyond the world’s top four for the winner here, though. Perhaps Federer is the outsider of the four, having lost to Wawrinka in Monte Carlo, and his record against Nadal is famously pretty poor. His run will be dependent on the draw, but it’s hard to see him seeing off a fully fit Djokovic or Nadal.

Wawrinka doesn’t yet have the status of the other top players, but is beginning to replicate their results. It’s tough to bet against the old guard, but if he keeps winning then his name will be more regularly forwarded as a contender for the big titles. Djokovic has suffered from an injury recently, and this may cloud his preparation for the Madrid Masters. A fully fit Djokovic will take some beating, but I would have to make him second favourite here.

Nadal has struggled desperately for form of late, and suffered scarcely believable defeats against Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro. But being back on the big stage will suit him, and the ‘King of Clay’ usually begins to produce his best tennis at this time of year. Given his simply staggering record on clay, it is impossible for me to tip against Nadal.

Tip: Rafael Nadal to win, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to be a dangerous floater

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02/05/2014     © Frixo 2026