Proteas and Morkel to shine amid Headingley gloom

There are two things worth knowing, above all others, before betting on the Second Test between England and South Africa at Headingley, the Leeds home of Yorkshire cricket.

First, even though the White Rose county is not famous for its long, hot summer days - it is bleak up north and the heavens open with great regularity, even in the middle of the year - all of the last 12 Test matches played at Headingley have resulted in a win for one of the teams.

One has to go back to the 1996 Test match between England and Pakistan for the last Headingley draw. The subsequent dozen Test matches have produced positive outcomes, often with one of the sides winning easily. For example, there have been five victories by innings, one by 10 wickets, one by wickets and a couple by more than 150 runs.

The second thing worth knowing is that Headingley favours seam bowlers. England spinner Graeme Swann may be the best twirler in the world but he is going to have his work cut out on a deck that, with the aid of typical Leeds cloud cover, usually plays in the hands of the fast bowlers.

Given the manner in which South Africa won the First Test at Lord`s before cricket`s most famous ground was taken over by London 2012 Olympic Games archery competitors and a couple of other factors - the low probability of a draw and the high probability that Swann will not be a major threat - the Proteas have a lot going for them at odds of around 2-1.

England`s confidence took an enormous battering in its innings-and-12-run loss to South Africa last month and Headingley is not the best place to go looking to regain it given the venue`s history of seeing wickets tumble. If the English find themselves several men down for not many runs in their first dig then their heads are likely to drop.

There is a strong value argument not only for backing South Africa to win the Second Test but also for having a play or two on the respective top bowler markets in which the honours go to the men who take the most match wickets.

Swann makes the England top bowler market because, at a top price of around 4-1, he is responsible for at least 20 per cent of the book. There has to be value in opposing him and Stuart Broad, who has the best Headingley test match strike rate of the English bowlers in the home team`s squad and once took 6-91 in Leeds, gets the nod at around 3-1.

Dale Steyn heads the South Africa top bowler betting market at around 9-4 but Morne Morkel constitutes better value at around 3-1 given their respective Headingley records.

Steyn has a Headingley Test match strike rate of 39.8 balls per wicket and an average of 24.71 runs per wicket. Compare that with Morkel`s numbers of 31.7 and 16.14 respectively and one could argue that Steyn is a false favourite.

That is perhaps going too far but the gap in the betting between Steyn and Morkel is too wide based on those statistics so side with the second favourite.

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02/08/2012     © Frixo 2026