Nadal the selection in the ATP Tour Finals

The 2013 ATP Tour Finals takes place this week from the 02 Arena in London with the action appearing live on both BBC Two and Sky Sports. Eight players are split into two groups of four with hefty rankings points and financial rewards up for grabs. Group A is headed by Rafa Nadal who is 4/6 (sportingbet) to finish on top. I like the Spaniard to come through comfortably here as he has a dominating head-to-head record of 47-8 against the three men in his group (Berdych, Ferrer, Wawrinka).

Outside of Nadal then it is a battle between Berdych, Ferrer and Wawrinka to qualify. I think we should discount Berdych as his head-to-head record with the others in the group this year is poor with no wins from seven matches alongside the fact the Czech has not won a single tournament this season.

Ferrer has won seven of the 11 meetings with Wawrinka and comes here on the back of reaching the final in the recent Paris event. The Spaniard is evens (paddy Power) to qualify from this group and I think this is a bet worth taking.

Novak Djokovic is the favourite to land Group B and he can be backed at 4/6 (GENERAL) to do so. The Serb has a 10-3 record over Del Potro, a 9-1 over Gasquet and since 2011 is 8-3 over Federer. In addition his recent form is good having won in Paris and he is the defending champion here, it would be a shock then if he did not come out on top of this section.

Richard Gasquet is likely to be the whipping boy of the group as he has a record of just four wins from 28 matches against these three. The Frenchman does not have the game for this tournament and is likely to finish bottom.

It will then be a battle between Roger Federer and Juan Marin Del Potro for the last spot. The Swiss ace can take heart from the fact that he beat the Argentine player in Paris though this was the first time from their last four meetings indoors he has emerged victorious. It looks like the bookmakers have this evenly balanced with Federer 4/5 (paddy Power) to qualify and Del Potro 4/6 (paddy power). With little to choose between the pair then take this match to go to three sets when bookmakers finally price this one up.

As with most events these days I think this is likely to come down to a battle between Djokovic and Nadal for the title. The Serb is the 6/5 (GENERAL) favourite as he looks to defend the crown he won in 2012. Djokovic is a deserved favourite though with little to choose between the pair Nadal at the bigger price of 3/1 (sportingbet) is the value selection. The Spaniard has never won this tournament previously and you think he will be hungry to add it to his collection. Nadal leads the head-to-head record 22-16 and has victories over Novak in France and the US Open in recent big events. You have to think his hunger and energy will be greater at this stage of the season so take the Spaniard to come out on top.

One bet I would recommend from the opening games comes in the battle between David Ferrer and Rafa Nadal where I think the former can take a set off the latter. The head-to-head record between the pair is actually tied at 3-3 when you remove clay court games and Ferrer has a confidence boosting straight sets victory over Nadal in Paris. At odds of 5/4 (ladbrokes) he looks value to take at least one set.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Rafa Nadal to win the tournament, 3/1 (SPORTINGBET)
SILVER: David Ferrer to qualify from Group A, evens (paddy power)
BRONZE: Ferrer to win at least one set against Nadal, 5/4 (ladbrokes)

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05/11/2013     © Frixo 2026