Back on First set winner to lose the final in tight encounter

The temperature in London could be as high as 28 degress on Sunday yet few people will be outside as Britain will stop to watch Andy Murray in action againt Novak Djokovic in the 2013 Wimbledon final. Can he become the first Brit since Fred Perry in 1936 to claim the title?

Bookmakers make Novak Djokovic the 8/13 (SKYBET/boylesports/paddy Power) favourite for the game as he seeks his second Grand Slam of the year and the seventh of his career. For Murray this will be his second attempt to win the Wimbledon crown after making the final last year and he is 13/8 (STAN JAMES) for victory.

The Serb has looked impressive en-route to the final dropping just two sets with those coming against Juan Martin Del Potro in an epic five set thriller on Friday. Murray won through to the quarters without dropping a set though was taken to five sets in the last eight by Verdasco before a four setter with Janowicz in the semi-finals.

In terms of head-to-head records I do not tend to look past two years as the games of players can change so much in that time. This means that what becomes a 11-7 Djokovic lead suddenly becomes 5-3. The one meeting they have had on this surface came in the 2012 Olympics with Murray winning that one 7-5, 7-5. These two have met in eight ATP finals with the record being four wins each and in three Grand Slam Finals with Djokovic having the narrow 2-1 advantage.

In terms of Grand Slam finals Djokovic has a 60% record winning six of the ten finals he has appeared in including in two of the three finals meetings with Murray. The Scot though did have success against Djokovic in the US Open which was his one win from four final appearances putting his win ratio at 25%

This is a very difficult game to call between two players in similar form and with little difference in the head-to-head record it looks a tough game to call. I would recommend instead then to have a look at a few of the side markets.

Given that Murray has just four more aces than the Djokovic in this tournament you might think the Brit at 4/6 (BETVICTOR/paddy Power) in the most aces betting market does not represent value. If you look at the record in the head-to-head battle you will see that the Murray has hit more aces than the Serb in 14 of their 18 meetings so far. The odds then should be a lot shorter than the 4/6 so this looks worth siding with.

Such is the talent of these two men that it is not unreasonable to think that the person who wins the first set will not go on to win the match. In none of the last three meetings between the pair has the person who has won the first set gone on to win the second set. This has also been the case in two of the last four finals including last year where Murray won the first set and failed to beat Federer.

It has to be worth a play then in taking both players to win the first set and to not go on and win the match. You can get 11/2 (BETVICTOR) on Murray to do this while Djokovic to do this is 6/1 (betway).

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Murray to have the most aces in final, 4/6 (BETVICTOR/paddy power)
SILVER: Murray to win first set and lose the match, 11/2 (BETVICTOR)
BRONZE: Djokovic to win first set and lose the match, 6/1 (betway)

Go To bet365

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07/07/2013     © Frixo 2026