Euro 2016 Qualifier preview: Germany v Poland

Group D - Friday, September 4

20.45pm - Commerzbank Arena, Frankfurt

The battle for supremacy in Group D continues on Friday night when World Champions Germany face Poland in Frankfurt.

World Cup hangover

Few could have predicted that by this stage in Group D the German team would be looking over their shoulders at Scotland, with the finishing line for Euro qualification still some way in the distance. But after a year of faltering performances in which their world-conquering form has eluded them, this is the reality that faces Joachim Low’s men.

The reason for Germany’s wobble can be attributed to their defence which has not looked the same since Philipp Lahm decided to hand up his boots. The departure of the national team Captain has also had wider implications throughout the team and Low is still searching for a way to fill the void.

It seems that his defensive tinkering is set to continue as Emre Can has been called into the squad. It is thought that the German Coach is considering using the Liverpool player as a full-back, something that Red’s boss Brendan Rodgers did during last year’s Premier League campaign.

Pivotal game

Poland may be top of the table but defeat to Germany could leave them second in the table, level on points with Scotland should Gordon Strachan’s men win in Georgia. This worst -case scenario highlights the precarious position that they are in; and how just one result could change the entire complexion of their qualifying campaign.

With players such as Arkadiusz Milik, Kuba Błaszczykowski, Łukasz Piszczek and Robert Lewandowski at their disposal, the Poles certainly cannot be accused of punching above their weight. They are well-balanced, strong at the back and dangerous on the counter-attack. A win or draw in Germany on Friday would keep Adam Nawałka’s team on track for Euro qualification.

Betting tips

The bookmakers still can’t shake the fact that Germany are World Champions and bet365 have priced them at a very short 3/10. However, they have failed to beat the Poles in their last three encounters.

If you fancy a Polish victory, you can get a huge 11/1 price at several bookies, but you should bear in mind that Germany have not lost at home in their last 20 qualifying matches. When Poland beat Germany earlier in this campaign, it was their first every victory against them in 19 meetings.

It is also worth noting that the last time Germany played a qualification game in Frankfurt, they drew 0-0 with Wales. In a game where a draw would probably suit the Polish team, the 5/1 on offer for a stalemate certainly looks like fair value.

With Germany’s defensive line still looking rather vulnerable, it could be worth looking at the prices available for the Polish strikers to mark the score sheet. Robert Lewandowski has scored more qualifying goals than any other player, with a total of seven, and can be backed at a generous price of 43/10 with unibet to score anytime. Milik is the second top scorer for Poland and can be backed at 6/1 with betfred.

Go To bet365

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04/09/2015     © Frixo 2024