Dortmund the value in Germany

When a team wins a title by 25 points and steals one of the best players from the side in second they must be guaranteed to win again the following season, Right? Well perhaps not.

Munich are just 2/9 (CORAL/YOU WIN) for victory in the Bundesliga this season and they have bought well bringing in Mario Gotze from Dortmund and Thiago Alcantara from Spain. Bayern have also done well in keeping their best players at the club and they look set for another strong season both domestically and in Europé. The problem is that the man who masterminded that success (Jupp Heynckes) has gone and in has come Pep Guardiola. This is not a knock on Guardiola who has proven at Barcelona that is an excellent manager, the problem is his philosophy is very different to that of Heynckes and Munich. Players are unlikely to take kindly to the Spaniard altering the tactics and philosophy, especially if the results do not follow instantly. This is a club used to winning and a radical alteration could be a huge disaster and at just 2/9 you do not want to take that risk.

Better than to be on a Borussia Dortmund side who have won two of the last three Bundesliga titles, made the Champions League final last season and have bought well in the transfer market. Out has gone Mario Gotze but in has come centre-forward Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, attacking midfielder Henrik Mkhitarayan and centre-back Sokratis. The club has also kept crucial players like Robert Lewandowski and Ilkay Gundogan. Most importantly though they still have manager Jurgen Klopp who is one of the brightest young minds in football. I think Dortmund at 11/2 (888 SPORT/unibet/188 BET) are the big value.

Outside the big two then the race is on for the Champions League with Schalke the 21/10 (paddy Power) favourites in betting without the big two. The club qualified for Europé this season and that has allowed them to spend a bit of money with a number of new signings including Mainz frontman Adam Szalai while Julian Draxler heads a number of young talents currently at the club. They will be ones to watch. As will Leverkusen who can be backed at 7/2 (BWIN) although they will feel the loss of Andre Schurrle to Chelsea who was among five first squad regulars to leave the club in the summer. Others expected to go well are Wolfsburg at 10/1 (paddy Power), VFB Stuttgart at 12/1 (boylesports/paddy Power), Hamburg 16/1 (BWIN) and Borussia Monchengladbach (16/1-paddy Power).

Speaking of Wolfsburg I think they could be value for a top six finish after ending the season on a run of ten games without defeat. The club with the most wrestling sound nickname in Germany (the Wolfpack) have enough talent and no distractions of Europé to get amongst the top six at odds of 2/1 (BWIN/188 BET).

Robert Lewandowski is the 7/2 (paddy power/ladbrokes) favourite to be topscorer in the Bundesliga as the Dortmund frontman has grabbed over 20 goals in his last two seasons. Next in the betting is Stefan Kiessling who grabbed 25 for Leverkusen last season to finish as top scorer. The value bet though looks like being Heung-Min Son who grabbed 12 goals for Hamburg last season and should beneift from the move to Leverkusen especially alongside assist machine Robbie Kruse. The South Korean must then be considered excellent each-way value at 50/1 (bet365).

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Dortmund to win the Bundesliga, 11/2 (888 SPORT/unibet/188 BET)
SILVER: Wolfsburg to finish in the top six, 2/1 (BWIN/188 BET)
BRONZE: Heung-Min Son, EW top Bundesliga goalscorer, 50/1 (bet365)

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09/08/2013     © Frixo 2026