Djokocvic the value call in US Open final

Rafa Nadal is the 4/6 (boylesports/sportingbet) favourite for the US Open on Monday evening (10:00pm). The Spaniard has dropped just one set en-route to a final meeting with Novak Djokovic. Nadal saw off Richard Gasquet in the semi-finals in straight sets before a win in the quarter-finals against Tommy Robredo where he dropped just four games. He did lose one set against Phillip Kohlschreiber who took a first set tiebreaker against nadal before the Spaniard stepped up a gear to win the next three.

Djokovic dropped just 19 games in his first four matches before dropping a set to Mikhail Youhzny in the quarters and two to Stainslas Wawrinka in the semi-finals. Bookmakers have reacted to this by pushing the Serbian out to 11/8 (GENERAL).

Djokovic was the pre-tournament tip of this column so it makes sense to stick with him, though for those with no bet so far in this game I have to think he still looks worth a bet. I make this game nearer a 50/50 than the bookmakers do. Firstly, Djokovic will have had plenty of resting time due to the fact his game was first up. Secondly, the Serbian had to play in Wawrinka a player in the form of his life yet still found a way to come through. Nadal has looked good but has had no real test so far of his credentials. Thirdly, though the head-to-head record favours Nadal 21-15 in the last five meetings in Grand Slams it is Djokovic who leads 3-2. If you take out games at the French Open, which is clearly a Nadal dominated event, then Djokvoic has won all three of their meetings. He beat him in Australia in 2012, in the US and Wimbledon in 2011.

In ten of the last 11 meetings between the pair the player who has won the first set has gone on to win the match so if backing Djokovic it also makes sense to have a little interest in the Serbian at 11/4 (ladbrokes) to win the first set and win the match.

Meanwhile on Sunday night (21:30) Serena Williams takes on Victoria Azarenka in the final of the Ladies event. The American is the strong 1/4 (GENERAL) favourite as she had a remarkable run to the final that has seen her drop just 16 games all tournament which is just scary. Williams lay waste to players such as Li Na (tipped up here to win her quarter at 9/4) and Sloane Stephens en-route to the final. The four time champion has to be respected though I think she can be taken on at those odds. Azarenka will not be afraid and despite a less convincing route to the final that saw her drop a set against Ana Ivanovic and Alize Cornet I suspect she will be confident.

The Belarusian was our pre-tournament favourite and I see no reason why not to stick with her. Azarenka has won two of the last three meetings between the pair including a victory in the last meeting in Cincinnati. She has lost just one of her last 31 on this surface and odds of 18/5 (BETVICTOR) are a little insulting on here.

The best way to play this might be in the player to win a set market where Azarenka can be backed at 6/5 (SKYBET). In four of their last meetings on this surface Azarenka has done this and she managed to do this in the 2012 final of the US Open against Williams.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Novak Djokovic to win the US Open, 11/8 (GENERAL)
SILVER: Victoria Azarenka to win a set against Serena Williams, 6/5 (SKYBET)
BRONZE: Novak Djokovic to win the first set and the match, 11/4 (ladbrokes)

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09/09/2013     © Frixo 2026