Cheltenham 2014 : RSA Chase Preview

Ballycasey is the 5/1 favourite with bet365 for the RSA Chase that takes place on the second of the day festival, Wednesday 14:05. The Willie Mullins runner is two wins from two runs since making the switch to chasing and beat the talented Don Cossack last time out at Leopardstown. The horse fits the right age trend as a seven-year-old as this is the age of ten of the last 13 winners. On the negative side Ballycasey has just appeared twice over fences with the last 14 winners having raced at least three times.. Therefore, a lack of experience is a concern for favourite backers.

Smad Place is the second favourite at 13/2 and if Ballycasey is trying to overcome history in having too little experience than this runner has the opposite problem, too much experience. We have to go back 22 years to find the last time an RSA Chase winner had already spent two seasons over hurdles, of the last 21 winners all but three were contesting novice hurdles last season. On the positive side the Alan King mount has been on top form recently with victories on the last two starts with these coming at Exeter in November and Newbury in February. Cheltenham Festival form is clearly not an issue either with a third in 2013 and then again in 2012 both times in the World Hurdle.

Morning Assembly is the 7/1 third favourite and the horse already has seen off Balleycasey in a novice hurdle back in April at Punchestown. The Pat Fahey runner has made the adjustment to fences well with two victories and a narrow second from three career starts. One of the biggest worries among the trends for backers of this horse is a lack of a run. Each of the last 50 winners had a run in the calendar year which Morning Assembly does not.

Carlingford Launch is the 8/1 joint fourth favourite and comes here on the back of a huge disappointment at Leopardstown at February where he unseated his rider when up against Ballycasey and Don Cossack. This was a rare blip on a run of form that had seen the eight-year-old finish in the top two in each of the last five starts. (winning two of these). The John Kiely runner is a year older than some of the key rivals and you have to go back to 2004 for the last time an eight-year-old landed the race.

Also an 8/1 chance is Corrin Wood from the Donald McCain yard who comes here on the back of three straight victories. A 23 length victory at Catterick marked this as a horse to watch though critics would argue a tendency to jump right might be an issue at this venue. The Paul Nicholls runner Sam Winner was beaten by two lengths by Smad Place at Newbury in February and will need to reverse that form. You can get 10/1 on a horse that has good Cheltenham form with a win here last time out and a fourth in the Triumph at the Fesitval back in 2011 and this might offer some each-way appeal.

VERDICT: CARLINGFORD LAUNCH might be trying to defy some younger horses but Rule Supreme did this in 2004 and I think the eight-year-old ticks all the other boxes. The Irish trained runner was going well behind Ballycasey before unseating a rider in February and at double the price the favourite I think has to be considered the value.

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11/03/2014     © Frixo 2026