Cheltenham 2014 : Supreme Novices Hurdle Betting

The Olympics of Horse Racing gets underway Tuesday afternoon with the Supreme Novices opening the Cheltenham Festival. The race is a two miler for younger horses that marks a number of them out for future success here.

Irving is the 5/2 market leaders with bet365 who are the firm to bet with this Festival as they offer some great deals including a price promise where they will be best price on every horse for all races shown live on Channel 4. The Paul Nicholls runner is a deserved favourite with four wins from four starts and none of these victories coming by a margin of lower than four lengths. Nicholls also trained the winner here in 2011 in Al Ferof and in 2006 with Noland and he will hope to repeat the magic here. That being said though the price looks much too short on a horse that has neither encountered the course or won a race going left-handed.

Another trainer who does well in this race with victories here in 2013 (Champagne Fever) and 2007 (Ebazyian) is Wille Mullins. The Irish trainer has a three strong team which is headed by the second favourite Vautour. The 3/1 second favourite is three from three this season and looked good when winning at Leopardstown last time out. That being said with only three of the last 18 horses to go off at 3-1 or lower in this race emerging victorious I would suggest that this race offers the potential for a bigger price winner at double figures.

Wicklow Brave is another Mullins runner and might offer more appeal at a bigger price of 13/2. The five-year-old has won the last five with all of these victories coming over two miles. The Irish have often done well here taking the race in 12 of the last 22 runnings.

The third and final Mullins runner is the 14/1 hope Valseur Lido who is two from two over the distance and has been described by his jockeys as having electric pace. The horse though has not run since December and will aim to put history behind it as since 1993 only one winner has been off the course for 68 days or more. Gilgamboa is next in the market at 10/1 and the Enda Bolger runner has three wins and a third from four career starts. A victory at Leopardstown last time out has put the horse in the mix as the six-year-old fits the criteria of 15 of the last 17 winners who won last time out.

Nicky Henderson is represented by Vaniteux and Josses Hill with the former a 10/1 chance and the latter 14/1 shot. Henderson has not had much look in this race in the past though a number of seconds, thirds or fourths suggest that this is still a race the trainer takes seriously. I think this year he has a pair of runners that could make the difference here and it is Josess Hill I like the look of most. I think Barry Geraghty may have made the wrong choice as this horse has a great turn of speed (key for this race) and actually tops the Racing Post topspeed. Andrew Tinkler is on board but I actually think this might suit Jossess Hill who did some excellent work under the rider at Ascot back in November in one of his two victories from last three starts. The horse is perhaps a bigger price then it should be because of a second at Kempton last time out though I think that can be forgiven in a close battle.

VERDICT: Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls obviously have to be respected here but at double figures odds and with strong top speed figures it might be time for Nicky Henderson have to some look here. Of his pair it is JOSSES HILL who makes the most appeal.

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11/03/2014     © Frixo 2026