Great Danes Overpriced Versus Profligate Portuguese

Bookmakers underestimated Denmark throughout its march to European Championship glory in 1992 and they are making the same market-making mistakes 20 years later at Euro 2012.

Yes, the Group B match is one that Portugal probably has to win to stand any chance of reaching the quarter-finals. And yes, the Danes were somewhat fortunate to beat the Dutch 1-0 in their opening game a few hours before the Portuguese, including Cristiano Ronaldo, lost 0-1 to the Germans.

But no way does that entitle Portugal to be around even money to down Denmark in Lviv, with the Danes available at about 3-1 to defeat opponents whom they have got to know incredibly well over the course of recent tournaments.

Portuguese football fans do not enjoy watching their team play Denmark and for good reason. The two countries met during qualification for both Euro 2012 and the 2010 FIFA World Cup, with the Danes having the better of the tussles.

Denmark topped both qualifying groups, winning two and drawing one of its four matches versus Portugal, including a breathtaking 3-2 come-from-behind victory in Lisbon in September 2008. The Danes rendered the Portuguese speechless, scoring two goals in the 90th minute.

Whichever way you look at their Euro 2012 clash, there is no way to view Portugal as anything other than underpriced and Denmark as anything other than grossly over the odds.

After all, Paulo Bento`s inconsistent side has not won any of its four games this year, drawing 0-0 with Poland (away) and Macedonia (home), losing 1-3 to Turkey (home) and succumbing 0-1 to Germany in Lviv last weekend.

Most soccer supporters would rank Ronaldo in the world`s top three players but he cannot do everything on his own. It is probably no coincidence that the Portuguese have racked up cricket scores against lightweights but failed to find the back of the net regularly versus heavyweights, a consequence of them having no classic playmaking midfielder following the retirements of Rui Costa and Deco from their squad.

The Danes are well coached by Morten Olsen, who has been in the job for 12 years and does not leave anything to chance. And while FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking has its detractors, there is logic behind Denmark being ranked number nine and Portugal being ranked number 10 going into Euro 2012.

Opposing the Portuguese is the logical way to approach the Lviv showdown from a betting perspective. Backing the Danes to win the match is a value proposition but perhaps the best course of action is to support them on Asian handicaps, betting to make a profit if they do not lose the game.

Germany and the Netherlands meet in the other Group B battle that will go a long way to determining which two teams make it through to the knockout phase of the tournament.

The Germans and the Dutch have a fierce rivalry dating back to 1910 but the neighbours have met only once since August 2005 so there is not much in the way of head-to-head form for punters to review before getting involved financially.

The Kharkiv blockbuster is one of those matches to enjoy without a bet. However, if you are looking for a small interest, have a punt on more than two goals (over 2.5).

Both Germany and the Netherlands celebrated more than 30 goals during the Euro 2012 qualification process and four of their last five meetings have gone over the 2.5 total.

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13/06/2012     © Frixo 2026