Greek tragedy awaits 2004 champs against Russians

Anyone who thinks Russia does not have to do anything more to qualify for the Euro 2012 knockout phase has not read the the rules correctly, with the Russians needing at least a draw to guarantee their berth in the quarter-finals.

On the evidence of the first four Group A games, Russia is head and shoulders above the Czech Republic, Poland and its next opponent, Greece, in most facets of football and the Russians more than merit odds-on match favouritism.

The game should play out perfectly for Russia. The Greeks are, quite honestly, the least effective attacking team to qualify for the tournament. They have not scored more than one goal in any of their last seven matches and, at Euro 2012, they have engineered a grand total of four chances in drawing 1-1 with the Poles and losing 1-2 to the Czechs.

Bottom of the section and needing a win to reach the last eight, Greece cannot sit back and play for a goalless draw, which would be its plan if this was anything other than a must-win game. The Euro 2004 champion has to press forward and leave itself vulnerable to Russian counter attacks.

Russia was ultra impressive in thrashing the Czech Republic 4-1 and there was only one winner until half time of its 1-1 draw with Poland. Polish coach Franciszek Smuda made several adjustments before it was too late and the host nation fought its way back into the match and the championship.

The Russians have fashioned 11 clear-cut opportunities in their two group games, capitalising upon five of them, and potential player of the tournament, Alan Dzagoev, could have a field day if the Greeks flood forward and leave gaps for the CSKA Moscow midfielder and his mates to exploit.

With Germany lying in wait for the Group A runner-up, Russia will want to top the section and not run into one of the Euro 2012 favourites in the last eight. The Russians will certainly want the three points and are decent value to defeat Greece at around the 8-11 mark in match markets.

Punters who do not like playing at odds-on prices could have an exotic stab at the half-time/full-time double result of draw-Russia. Both sides are likely to feel their way into the game, with the Greeks probably resisting the urge to throw the kitchen sink at the Russians until the second period if the match is close in the first 45 minutes.

The Czechs and the Poles meet in the other Group A game and, while it is difficult to pick a winner, it is easy to see the Wroclaw match being one full of goalmouth incident.

Poland has been the most attack minded of the four teams in the section, fashioning 14 chances and riding on the wave of emotion that its supporters are generating in the stadia.

Expect an open game with the Poles needing a win to make the last eight of a European Championships for the first time ever and the Czech Republic, whose goalkeeper Petr Cech has made some uncharacteristic errors, not the safest at the back and, therefore, unlikely to play for a point.

A bet on more than 2.5 goals is in order, while if you must have a punt on the outcome of the match, make it a speculative on Poland 2-1 at odds of around 8-1.

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15/06/2012     © Frixo 2026