Football Playoffs 2nd May

As down as some Football fans will have felt on Saturday night not many can have felt as sick as Brentford supporters. The London side had a penalty that would have sent them into the Championship instead the penalty crashed against the crossbar and Doncaster ran the length of the pitch and grabbed a goal that saw them become the League One champions. Congratulations to Doncaster but commiserations to Brentford who now must pick themselves up for the lottery that is the play-offs. The Bees are the 5/2 favourites (GENERAL) to gain promotion to the Championship though you have to wonder how Uwe Rosler will be able to pick his side up after the heartbreaking loss on Saturday. Brentford though can take heart in the fact that they were the best side of the four in the regular season. The price though is unbackable I refuse to back anyone at short odds in the play-offs because of the random nature of the competition. The truth is that the end of season play-offs are an unfair lottery. It is a random three game league in which any side can come out on top. The chances are that each side deserves a 25% of winning through which lends itself to odds of 3/1 on everyone. This then leads me to Yeovil as the recommended bet at 4/1 (sportingbet/888 SPORT) in the League One promotion race which is suggesting that they have a much smaller than a 25% chance. I am unclear as to why this should be so. They ended the season in fourth which means they have home advantage in the second leg, they play a Sheffield United side who ended the season on a run of four games without victory. True Yeovil lost two of their last three games however they were secure in the play-offs so I do not read too much into this. In addition to backing Yeovil to go win the play-offs you should also back them to see off the Blades in the semi-final at odds of 11/8 (BETVICTOR/STAN JAMES).

Following the same theory then Burton must be also considered value to qualify against Bradford. True the Bantams have ended the season well but the regular season has shown Burton to be seven points better than Bradford. Burton have lost just three games at home all season. Too much is being read into the cup form of Bradford I think and not enough of the league form of Burton. Take Burton then to qualify at 11/8 (BETVICTOR). Those looking for a bet on the League Two play-offs will see that the market is headed by Bradford who look much too short at 5/2 (boylesports). Cheltenham are 3/1 (888 SPORT) to win the play-offs while their semi-final opponents Northampton can also be backed at 3/1 (betway). The big outsiders are Burton who look a little bit value at 10/3 (BETVICTOR) as they finished the highest of these sides in the league.

One final note on the play-offs in general is do not believe anyone who has a strong theory. The research shows that not one finishing position in the table has an advantage, nor do sides coming in with six wins have a greater chance than sides coming in with six losses. Form does not matter, it is a random three game lottery and as such is a difficult betting proposition. However, as with all betting markets, look to play the percentages.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Yeovil to win the League One play-offs, 4/1 (sportingbet/888 SPORT)
SILVER: Yeovil to make the League One play-off final, 11/8 (BETVICTOR/STAN JAMES)
BRONZE: Burton to make the League Two play-off final, 11/8 (BETVICTOR)

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02/05/2013     © Frixo 2026