Football World Cup Preview

A friend of mine once told me that the best time to buy Christmas cards and paper is in the middle of January when everybody else is thinking about everything but Christmas. You can apply this advice to betting. As all eyes are on the conclusion of the domestic and european football season then value can be found in the World Cup outright markets.

Brazil are the hosts and the favourites 7/2 (GENERAL) for the 2014 World Cup which is understandable though not value. The South Americans have won just one of their last seven international friendlies and have gone out in the quarter-finals in each of their last two World Cups. This Brazil side has to be respected though you would have to say if you were listing the top 20 footabllers in the world very few Brazilians would be on that list. Throw in the pressure that comes with being a home team and the 7/2 does not look worth backing. If not Brazil then perhaps their South American neighbours Argentina who are the second favourites at 5/1 (GENERAL). Top of South American qualifying with seven wins and three draws from their 11 qualifiers so far they look strong contenders. In Lionel Messi they possess the greatest player in the world and no side can possess the fire-power they do with Aguero, Higuain and Lavezzi. The fact that the tournament is being held in next door Brazil makes them look great value at 5/1.

Those looking for an outsider might want to consider a couple of South Americans at bigger prices with Colombia at 33/1 (GENERAL) while Ecuador are as big as 200/1 (188 BET). The Colombians could will be popular as they have up front the strike talents of Radamel Falcao. Ecuador meanwhile do not have a talent like Falcao but they have looked excellent in qualifying. At prices as big as 200/1 they could be an option in the back to lay market.

Switching to Europe and the charge is lead by Spain who are 11/2 (GENERAL) chances and the winners of the 2012 European Championship and 2010 World Cup obviously have to be respected. I think the signs are there that this could be a tournament too far for them. You have to look at the way Barcelona and Real Madrid were ripped apart in the semi-finals of the Champions League to see that this side might have the best players at the wrong side of 30 come this tournament.

Germany at 13/2 (YOU WIN) look another side worth adding to your portfolio for the World Cup. The Champions League showed just how good German football is at the moment and both Dortmund and Munich have a large number of German players. The international side have made the last four in each of the last four major tournaments. 2014 might just be their moment to shine.

Other European nations expected to go well by bookmakers are Holland at 20/1 (GENERAL), Italy at 22/1 (bet365/paddy Power), England at 22/1 (GENERAL) and Belgium 25/1 (BETVICTOR/CORAL/188 BET). France at 40/1 (CORAL) and Portugal at 50/1 (YOU WIN) both could be overpriced though they both are struggling to qualify.

I think Russia at 66/1 (888 SPORT) look some good value as in small spells of the Euros in 2012 they impressed. They seem to be coasting through qualification with four wins from four and a recent friendly draw with Brazil suggest that they can compete with the big boys.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Argentina to win the World Cup, 5/1 (GENERAL)
SILVER: Germany to win the World Cup, 13/2 (YOU WIN)
BRONZE: Russia to win the World Cup, EW, 66/1 (888 SPORT)

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13/05/2013     © Frixo 2026