Premier League Preview 20th May

The Premier League season is almost over with just one major issue to be decided, just which of the North London rivals (Arsenal and Tottenham) will secure a place in the Champions League next season.

The other week my nephew challenged me to a game of Chess, as the child is seven I suspected I was in for an easy time. I went on to lose the first game, scrape a draw in the second before finally beating him in the third. The morale of the story is that nothing is easy oh and bet on him to become a Grandmaster by the age of 21.

This brings me to the race for the Champions League and after a 4-1 victory over Wigan in midweek Arsenal hold a one point advantage and everyone thinks this is checkmate. Bookmakers agree making them 4/11 (GENERAL) to make it Champions League football for a 16th consecutive year while Tottenham are 23/10 (SPREADEX).

The Gunners just have to turn up to beat a Newcastle side whose manager only said himself this week that he does not care about this game. 4/7 (GENERAL) then is a great price for Arsenal right? Wrong. Three reasons make me think that Arsenal can be beaten here.

Firstly, the Pardew gaffe has given Newcastle motivation. Maybe Pardew is a mind game genius (though likely not) the Magpies are now in the awkward situation of knowing if they do not show up then they will attract huge criticism. Secondly, Newcastle have the second best record outside the top six (West Brom) of home teams and will be motivated to a reward a packed crowd for a tough season in which they have not performed well enough. Thirdly, the fact is that despite that 4-1 win Arsenal are not playing well. True the Gunners have taken 14 points from their last six games but the fixtures have fallen well for them. Wigan looked dead on their feet in the second half while QPR, Man Utd and Fulham all had nothing to play for.

You can get 5/1 (GENERAL) on a Newcastle victory while the draw is available at 7/2 (bet365). I think the best way to play this is in the draw no bet market where you can get the North Eastern side at 15/4 (CORAL).

The other bet to recommend in this game is in taking Hatem Ben Arfa at a very generous 14/1 (BETVICTOR/888 SPORT) to grab the first goal or at 9/2 (888 SPORT) in the anytime scorer market. The Frenchman returned to action last weekend grabbing a goal from the penalty spot and the player will be on a mission to remind clubs of his talent.

Paulo Di Canio has warned his players that he will cut short their summer holidays from seven to four weeks if he sees any signs of them coasting against Tottenham and I expect the Black Cats to frustrate Tottenham for large periods of their game. If you take out the disaster at Villa then the Black Cats have a strong defensive record conceding just twice in their last four. Tottenham meanwhile have failed to find the net in three of their last six home games against sides in the bottom half of the table. Take the 7/4 (BETVICTOR) are offering on the first home goal to come after the 38th minute of the game. Bigger still though take the Black Cats on the Asian Handicap at +0.75 at 47/20 (bet365). If Sunderland frustrate them long enough and results come through that Arsenal are winning easy Tottenham heads could drop and Sunderland could take advantage.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Newcastle draw no bet v Arsenal, 17/4 (CORAL)
SILVER: Sunderland +0.75 on the Asian Handicap v Tottenham, 47/20 (bet365)
BRONZE: Hatem Ben Arfa to score v Arsenal, first 14/1 (BETVICTOR/888 SPORT), anytime 9/2 (888 SPORT)

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19/05/2013     © Frixo 2026