Despite Recent Malaise Don`t Bet Against Nadal at Roland Garros

A few lacklustre defeats have had tennis analysts asking an unthinkable question – could Rafael Nadal lose at the French Open? I will be the first to admit that Nadal’s style of play has never particularly appealed to me, but I wouldn’t be betting any of my own money against him at Roland Garros. Here’s why not.

Yes, Nadal had a bad run when the clay season started. He isn`t playing at his absolute best. But his B-game has been good enough to win Madrid, and make the final at Rome, which was better than anyone else achieved in the last two events before the French Open.

If it was anyone else winning Masters series events and playing the way Nadal did against Murray when his back was to the wall, we`d be saying how well the person was playing. It`s only because Nadal has set the bar so high that any defeat on clay is virtually seismic. We saw with Federer against Chardy in Rome that anyone can lose a match, but this is just something that Nadal hasn`t done on clay in the past. His record is almost superhuman.

Maybe it is indicative that he isn`t playing his best tennis, but someone is still going to have to take three sets off him in Paris, and that`s only happened once before, and I only see one person in the field who can even conceivably do it. Look at the massive effort that Murray put in against Nadal, yet if that match was at Roland Garros, he would still have had to win two sets out of two to win the match!

The great Roger Federer, who has achieved almost everything conceivable on a tennis court, has never beaten Nadal in five sets on clay. He is one of the few people to beat him more than once on clay, the others being Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer and Gaston Gaudio. Feder pushed him very close in one of the best matches I`ve ever seen in Rome in 2006, when he lost 7-6 in the fifth. Guillermo Coria also had a great match with Nadal in Rome, and lost 7-6 in the fifth. Djokovic went very close at the French last year. He`s been taken to five sets a few times, by Isner on once occasion I recall. However, Nadal has only ever lost one five set match on clay, and that was to Soderling. Who isn’t playing any more.

Every time Nadal`s tested on clay, he comes through. Even if he`s playing terribly at the start of the match, when the crunch comes he just starts playing error-free tennis. Unquestionably Djokovic has tested Nadal’s play more than anyone he’s faced before, but Djokovic’s Grand Slam and five set record against Nadal is considerably more moderate than his three set record.

I realise Nadal`s been pushed close, I realise Djokovic could easily have beaten him last year, but I wouldn`t bet one penny of my own money against him winning the French Open. I`m ready to be proved wrong, I very much hope I am proved wrong, but I seriously doubt that I will be. What I do hope to see is a Nadal-Djokovic final, which could be a total classic.

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21/05/2014     © Frixo 2026